Minsk Violations Escalate In Donbas

What You Need To Know:

✓ The OSCE has recorded a high number of ceasefire violations, resulting in the death of numerous soldiers;

✓ “Different instruments Putin used before didn’t work;”

✓  Russia has not been very successful with diplomacy or informational warfare;

✓ “If sanctions were prolonged – it happened – and if we understand that September will be parliamentary elections in Russia, for Putin it is a nice time to show maybe some victories and at the same time make some pressure on Western partners.”

The war with Russia-backed separatists in Ukraine's east has seen sharp escalations over the past week, including violations of the Minsk agreement. The OSCE has recorded a high number of ceasefire violations, resulting in the death of numerous soldiers. According to Mykhailo Samus, Deputy Director of the Center of Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies, “we should remember that we have full-scale war with Russia for more than two years.” He adds that it is a war of hybrid nature and that “different instruments Putin used before didn’t work.”

According to Samus, Russia has not been very successful with diplomacy or informational warfare. While Russia might not be looking to go after any new territories or launch any real offensive operations, Samus believes that Russia has always used military means to put pressure on the West, hinting that July and August could be dangerous months and he expects attacks in Mariupol: “If sanctions were prolonged – it happened – and if we understand that September will be parliamentary elections in Russia, for Putin it is a nice time to show maybe some victories and at the same time make some pressure on Western partners.”

While experts say that there should be compromises made on both sides, Samus believes that the current international scenery and uncertainty will make it difficult for Ukraine to act now. “Russia will never allow us to do it,” he adds.

Hromadske’s Nataliya Gumenyuk and Kyiv Post’s Josh Kovensky spoke to Mykhailo Samus, Deputy Director of the Center of Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies, during live broadcast of The Sunday Show on July 3rd, 2016 in Kyiv.