Russian offensive in the east. What is known about situation near Avdiyivka and Kupyansk

Fighting for Avdiyivka

The Ukrainian military has been holding Avdiyivka, located just 13 kilometers from occupied Donetsk, since 2014. Since then, the town has regularly come under fire from militants, and with the outbreak of full-scale war, Russian attempts to capture the important fortified area in Donetsk Oblast have become even more persistent.

If this happens, the enemy will be able to push the front away from Donetsk and create a foothold for an offensive on Pokrovsk. During the winter and spring of 2023, the Russians managed to capture Kamyanka and Krasnohorivka, villages north of Avdiyivka. Even earlier, they occupied Opytne, south of the settlement. So as of October 2023, Avdiyivka was effectively semi-surrounded.

In early October, Russian troops launched a massive offensive on the town, sparing neither equipment nor personnel. In just ten days, from October 10 to October 20, the Russians lost more than 109 pieces of military equipment near Avdiyivka, the Institute for the Study of War said. Most of the losses were armored fighting vehicles, such as BMP-1 and BMP-2, as well as T-72, T-64, T-80 tanks, armored personnel carriers and other vehicles.

The Ukrainian military was indeed ready to meet the enemy in this area. The Special Operations Forces showed how they destroyed armored personnel carriers, tanks and several dozen Russian troops using FPV drones, Javelin ATGMs, and mortars.

Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valerii Zaluzhnyi visited Avdiyivka on October 19. Together with the commanders and brigade commanders performing tasks on the Avdiyivka axis, he determined "the sequence of steps in view of the constantly changing operational situation."

At the same time, Vitaliy Barabash, head of the Avdiyivka civil-military administration, emphasizes that the Russians are not deterred by the huge losses during the assaults, and they are still trying to surround the town. The Russian troops have also started digging tunnels to get closer to Ukrainian positions unnoticed.

In almost three weeks of intense fighting on the Avdiyivka and Maryinka axes, Russians lost more than 5,000 personnel in killed and wounded, as well as up to 400 pieces of armored vehicles, said Oleksandr Shtupun, spokesman for the Joint Press Center of the Tauride Defense Forces, on October 26.

Despite the shelling and air attacks, about 1,000 residents still live in Avdiyivka, says Iryna Vereshchuk, Minister for Reintegration of the Temporarily Occupied Territories.

The city authorities and police are urging residents to evacuate. Due to the shelling of the road, it is possible to leave Avdiyivka only under police protection. For this purpose, a special police crew called "White Angels" visits the town every day.

Attacks near Kupyansk

While the Ukrainian military was launching a counteroffensive in the south, the Russians began to pose a threat at the Kupyansk and Lyman axes, and later launched assaults.

On October 14, the commander of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrskyi, visited the military units that are defending these areas and stated that the situation had significantly escalated.

According to the general, the Russians recovered from their losses in two months and launched an active offensive in the area of Makiyivka in Luhansk Oblast, and later on the Kupyansk axis. The main goal of the invading forces in these areas is to surround Kupyansk and reach the Oskil River.

According to Volodymyr Fityo, a spokesman for the Ukrainian Army, the number of Russian troops on the Kupyansk and Lyman axes has remained unchanged for several months, at approximately 100,000. He explained that the number of enemy troops does not change because they are constantly pulling up reserves.

At the same time, Fityo emphasized that the Ukrainian military was preparing for an escalation of the situation in the area.

Kupyansk is an important hub in Kharkiv Oblast that the Ukrainian army liberated in September 2022. And it appears that Russia will not give up trying to recapture it. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reported that on October 25, Ukrainian troops repelled Russian assaults near the villages of Synkivka, Petropavlivka, and Ivanivka, east of Kupyansk.

Back in August, a voluntary evacuation of civilians from Kupyansk district was announced. Recently, the head of the Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration, Oleg Synegubov, said that the authorities are now preparing to forcibly remove families with children.

Defense Forces offensive continues

It seems that five months after the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, there is less and less talk about it. Yet the offensive by the Defense Forces in the east and south has not stopped.

On the morning of October 27, the General Staff reported that Ukrainian troops were continuing their offensive on the Melitopol and Bakhmut axes. One can see how the fighting is going on on the social media pages of the combat units.

Denys Sokur, a soldier with the 3rd separate assault brigade, posted a video that he captioned "A day in the life of an infantryman near Bakhmut." It shows the soldiers shooting down enemy drones with munitions, shooting the enemy from the trenches, and evacuating their fellow soldiers during shelling in a forest plantation.

Also in October, Ukrainian troops allegedly raided the east bank of Kherson Oblast. ISW, citing Russian Telegram channels, wrote that on October 17-18, the Defense Forces were able to break through the initial enemy defenses and advance north of the village of Pishchanivka.

The General Staff indirectly confirmed this operation. The October 19 report mentions the village of Pishchanivka on the east bank as one of the settlements that suffered air strikes by Russians.

However, Natalia Humeniuk, head of the Joint Coordination Press Center of the Southern Defense Forces, emphasized that "there is a task to clear part of the territory of the left (east) bank from the enemy," but the results will be announced only after they are consolidated.

Reports of casualties indicate that the Ukrainian operation has already moved to the east bank. Ukraine does not officially disclose the number of wounded and dead. However, local authorities usually notify the community about their fallen compatriots so that they can pay tribute to the heroes. Such reports indicate that on October 18, at least three Ukrainian soldiers from Kirovohrad, Odesa, and Vinnytsia oblasts were killed near the village of Pishchanivka.