Trump's team knew Iran war could cost Republicans Congress months before midterm defeat - NYT
President Donald Trump's political advisers warned months before the November 3 midterm elections that the war in Iran could cost Republicans control of Congress, according to a New York Times investigation into the party's sweeping electoral defeat.
The report, based on interviews with more than 70 lawmakers, political strategists, White House officials and other people involved in the campaign, describes how Trump's team recognized the growing political damage from the war but struggled to reverse it.
Warnings months before the election
Over the summer, James Blair, who oversaw Trump's midterm strategy, circulated a presentation among White House officials showing how Republican support had deteriorated during the war.
The presentation showed that Democrats' advantage in congressional polling had widened during active fighting, narrowed during diplomatic talks with Iran and grown again after a ceasefire collapsed.
By late July, Democrats held a 10-point lead on the generic congressional ballot.
Republicans could still conceivably retain the House if that lead narrowed to four points, the presentation warned. But that would require an extended ceasefire, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and falling gasoline prices.
The presentation also warned that a Democratic advantage approaching 10 points would likely cost Republicans the Senate.
According to the Times, the final outcome was even worse: Democrats were on track to win the national congressional popular vote by approximately 13 points.
The newspaper also reported that Trump privately asked an associate before polls closed what might have happened if the United States had never entered the war.
Campaign spending and strategic mistakes
The investigation describes other problems within the Republican campaign, including delays in approving political spending.
Trump reportedly held off authorizing the use of a roughly $400 million campaign fund until late summer, driving up advertising costs as Election Day approached.
In one striking example, Trump's political operation paid $30,000 for an advertising slot on an Anchorage television station, while a leading Democratic political committee paid $2,700 for the same slot.
Republicans also spent nearly $300 million defending their Senate candidate in Texas, Ken Paxton, whom Trump had endorsed despite warnings that his candidacy could jeopardize the seat. Paxton ultimately lost by 12 percentage points.
"I have seen the enemy. And it is us"
Six days before the election, more than two dozen senior Trump strategists joined a private video call to discuss the increasingly grim outlook.
According to four people on the call who spoke to the Times, the conversation featured dark jokes about funeral arrangements, prison food, presidential pardons and even fleeing the country.
"I'm getting my affairs in order," Blair reportedly joked, prompting laughter.
"At least Bibi won. He'll protect us," Blair said sarcastically, referring to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose political bloc had fallen short of a parliamentary majority.
Trump's chief pollster, Tony Fabrizio, reportedly replied: "Maybe we could get asylum in Israel."
On an earlier call, Blair had summed up the campaign's difficulties with another remark:
"I have seen the enemy. And it is us."
"In many places," Fabrizio responded.
A spokesperson for the pro-Trump MAGA Inc. political committee disputed the Times' account, describing the reported quotations as fabricated and criticizing anonymous sources.
Democrats won control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate in the November 3 elections, dealing Trump and his party a major setback midway through his second term.