Is there a risk of encirclement in Pokrovsk and what awaits Myrnohrad? Soldiers explain
“Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad are already f***ed, in short,” begins the conversation with hromadske pilot Valeriy (name changed at the interlocutor’s request).
He has just left the positions in Pokrovsk, where he spent 13 days. During this time, his unit had to retreat three times because the Russians were moving quickly through the city. The UAV unit found itself 900 meters from the enemy and was forced to operate in a city into which the Russians are penetrating deeper and deeper.
Pessimistic forecasts about the future of the key city in southern Donetsk are expressed not only by soldiers working directly in the city, but also by officers.
“Everything that is gray on DeepState in the city of Pokrovsk should be painted red. About 60% of the city the Russians control. The enemy is in Rodynske and in Myrnohrad. The situation is sh**ty,” describes the situation a high-ranking officer from the Pokrovsk axis who agreed to talk to hromadske on condition of anonymity.
Pokrovsk found itself on the verge of full occupation after hundreds of Russians seeped into the city. The Ukrainian military has been unable to eliminate the gaps in the defense through which the enemy enters the city since the summer. This led to the Russians accumulating in Pokrovsk, and in the fall, their presence became so large that it threatens the encirclement of the entire Ukrainian garrison.
“Those who are in Pokrovsk on the forward positions are already basically in encirclement, from which there are few chances to get out. There are buildings, blocks, streets to pass through which, without being shot, is almost impossible,” warns the aforementioned pilot.
The command holds a different opinion, believing that strike-search actions, to which additional units are involved, can still save the situation in the city.
hromadske spoke both with a dozen military personnel from Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, and with commanders, to understand whether the city can still be saved.
"Russians control a much larger part of Pokrovsk"
For the first time, groups of Russian infantry seeped into Pokrovsk in July. Then the Russians identified weak points in the defense in the village of Zvirove, from which they entered the city. Most of those Russian soldiers, according to Ukrainian defenders, were detected and destroyed. However, it was not possible to fully secure the southern flank of Pokrovsk since then.
On the contrary, the situation only worsened — the lack of infantry in brigades exhausted by the prolonged defense of Pokrovsk took its toll. The Russians identified new gaps and began entering Pokrovsk via new routes: in addition to Zvirove, also through Kotlyne along the railway, as well as the village of Shevchenko.
Eventually, in this way, several hundred Russians penetrated Pokrovsk. Ukrainska Pravda wrote that at least 250 Russian soldiers entered the city. hromadske sources say that these are modest estimates — there may be more Russians.
“Numbers are definitely different now, considering that the Defense Forces are gradually eliminating Russians every day, and the enemy, unfortunately, continues to penetrate the city. In such a dynamic environment, precise counts only play into the enemy’s hands,” hromadske was told in response to a question about whether they know how many Russians are in the city.
The 7th Rapid Reaction Corps of the Air Assault Forces, which manages the defense of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, prefers not to name an exact number. They note that the Russians “do not consolidate in the districts of the city of Pokrovsk, but periodically move.”
The soldiers who work directly in the city insist: the Russians control part of Pokrovsk.
“There is no longer talk of parity. They control a much larger part of Pokrovsk. They set the pace, impose the initiative, and set their own course of combat operations. In certain parts of Pokrovsk, they have entrenched themselves and hold the defense, in others — they move as far north as possible, aiming to go as deep as possible into our rear,” notes the previously quoted UAV pilot.
“You enter the positions, drones are constantly flying overhead, there are KIAs lying there that are not being picked up”
One of the commanders described the Russians’ tactics in Pokrovsk as “Brownian motion.” The enemy troops bypass forward infantry positions, sneak into the rear, and conduct surveillance or engage in battles with units in the city.
“Infantry on the front line almost does not fight. My mortar men and pilots now engage in small-arms battles more often than the front line,” the officer recounts.
According to hromadske sources, there are dead among rear units in the city, which are forced to engage in small-arms battles.
“Today, our pilots were shooting. They wounded one Russian, killed one. But if pilots work in such conditions, when they have to use small arms, then this is temporary. Because you are constantly flying, you cannot effectively guard the perimeter,” the pilot explains.
Another interlocutor — a platoon commander — said that his drone operators are afraid to enter positions in Pokrovsk, because now it is unclear where the enemy is, where their own are.
“There’s not only sabotage and reconnaissance groups. You enter the positions, drones are constantly flying overhead, there are KIAs lying there that are not being picked up, a lot of mining, and artillery shelling on the logistics route. A lot of different problems in terms of entry. This demotivates you a bit,” explains pilot Valeriy.
However, one of the biggest problems is that, due to constant advances deeper into the city, pilots and drone operators are constantly pulled back and cannot perform their direct work because enemy infantry is present.
“Because of this, our second echelon does not work, and it provides 90% of the strikes. Accordingly, we cannot kill Russians on the approaches to the city. And when we have no UAVs, Russia will always outnumber us in infantry personnel,” explains the aforementioned pilot.
Due to the chaos that the Russians spread in the city, on the one hand, they create problems for rear units, on the other hand, they make their productive work impossible, and at the same time, this tactic ensures the opportunity to continue seeping into the city unnoticed.
"Everyone only loves good news"
Against the backdrop of the deteriorating situation in Pokrovsk, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi met with the commanders of units holding the line on this axis. In a post summarizing the meeting on the commander’s page, a post appeared saying that “in Pokrovsk, enemy infantry, avoiding engagements, accumulates in the urban development, changes locations, so the primary task is to detect it and destroy it.”
According to hromadske data, the command is involving additional units in the city’s defense, which should clear it and unblock the Pokrovsk defenders. One high-ranking officer is skeptical about this possibility because, according to him, more Russians enter the city per day than special units manage to eliminate.
“If the weather is sunny and allows us to fly, then maybe up to 10 per day can enter. And if the weather is such that it rains all day, then 30-40 people. We constantly said that we need reinforcements, we need drones, they are cutting our logistics, infiltrating. Everyone just loves good news.
A month ago, I already started talking about the need to regroup. This will lead to the fact that units need to be redeployed, accordingly, giving up part of the territory, and no one wants to do that,” the officer explains.
In addition, the UAV pilot adds, the Russians have pulled too many forces to Pokrovsk — it will be impossible to completely push back such a large number of the enemy fighters from the city. According to data from the 7th Air Assault Corps, 11,000 Russians are storming the city.
“This is already stage four cancer. Stage four cancer is not treated. First, there are a lot of them. Second, there is no established concept for countering this. We reacted too late to the threat, and now it is impossible to fix the situation. Three weeks ago, it was possible to try, but when UAVs were pushed back, we cannot effectively destroy them in the urban development.
And Pokrovsk is just an ideal place to accumulate personnel. And the Russians understand this, they are now bringing a large number of military personnel there who simply advance forward without resistance because they just pass between positions,” says drone operator Valeriy.
However, not all servicemen are pessimistic about the possibility of at least partially stabilizing the situation in Pokrovsk. An interlocutor from the headquarters of another brigade defending Pokrovsk states that withdrawing from the city now would be a mistake, as the urban development, with its heights, provides an advantage for UAV operations. The soldier hopes that assault troops and other special units will ease the situation for the brigades defending the city.
“If we give up Pokrovsk, then a large number of Russians will accumulate in it, and they will use Pokrovsk as a bridgehead. There will be a large number of UAV crews who will feel comfortable and destroy us at a distance of 30 km from Pokrovsk,” UAV drone operator Valeriy agrees.
Another unit — the 32nd Mechanized Brigade, which holds the western flank where the Russians are attempting to cut the Pokrovsk-Pavlohrad highway — states that additional units will not save the city if the Russians completely sever the flanks.
“The situation is saved not by some one ‘miracle unit,’ but by coordinated interaction of all forces. Special units are already doing extremely important work in the city, conducting clearances and strike-search actions. Their experience in urban battles is invaluable. But their effectiveness directly depends on how firmly we, mechanized brigades, hold the flanks.
If we do not allow the enemy to encircle the city and cut the logistics, the special forces inside Pokrovsk will have the opportunity and time to methodically ‘drive out’ the occupiers from every basement. This is joint work,” notes the head of the communications department of the 32nd Steel Brigade, Ivan Stoliarchuk, adding that currently, logistics in this area is complicated, but corridors are not cut.
A truly alarming signal was the hanging of a Russian flag on the Pokrovsk stele in the western district of the city. On October 29, TSN journalist Yuliya Kyriyenko published footage of the Russian flag on the Pokrovsk stele at the city's exit, leading to the highway to Pavlohrad.
According to DeepState data, Magyar’s Birds destroyed the flag within an hour. However, two hromadske sources said that this was not just a one-time raid action, but the Russians had entrenched themselves near the stele a week earlier.
The 7th Air Assault Corps officially denies this: “The stele is not an object on which one can entrench. We detect them near the stele, but the infiltrated Russians constantly move.”
"The logistics route to Myrnohrad is almost completely under enemy fire control"
In Pokrovsk, not only is the fate of the city itself being decided, but also that of the neighboring Myrnohrad. North of Pokrovsk pass the logistical routes to Myrnohrad. The Russians are already recorded in the north of Pokrovsk. Thus, they not only cut off the grouping in Pokrovsk but also sever supply routes to Myrnohrad.
“If Pokrovsk falls — there is no Myrnohrad. If Myrnohrad falls — there is no Pokrovsk. I cannot separate these two cities. If we consider that Russians feel absolutely comfortable in the north of Pokrovsk and in the northeast of Myrnohrad, then they can cover the remaining distance between them with FPVs. They are doing everything so that the city, if not in physical encirclement, then in encirclement that will make any exit from the city impossible,” explains a servicewoman of the 38th Marine Brigade who agreed to talk to hromadske anonymously.
Russian infantry has been seeping into Myrnohrad for the last two weeks, recounts another officer from the axis. First, the Russians enter houses on the outskirts, from where they move further. During these movements, there are attempts to destroy them or groups are sent to eliminate them.
Despite the fact that Russians are detected in the northeast and south of the city, not the presence of Russian infantry itself is the greatest danger for Myrnohrad, says the 38th Brigade, which defends the city.
“The situation is generally under the control of our Defense Forces. The enemy is attempting to conduct small-scale assaults with groups that infiltrate the gray zone or outskirts. Currently, there is no systematic advance deep into the city. These are mostly local attempts that are quickly suppressed,” says the head of the communications department of the 38th Brigade, Myroslav Kryvoruchko.
The greatest danger to the city is the cutting off of entry routes to Myrnohrad. Logistics to the city has been complicated for some time now. The aforementioned 38th Brigade servicewoman, together with her brothers-in-arms, covers 20 kilometers to the positions in the last month.
“The logistics route is very narrow and almost completely under enemy fire control,” explains an officer defending Myrnohrad.
According to him, if the situation in Pokrovsk and Rodynske worsens, the roads to Myrnohrad will be completely blocked.
“If Myrnohrad is in full encirclement, then you cannot build all logistics with large bombers, because you need mortar shells too. If 60mm mortar shells can still be delivered by large bombers, then 120mm mortar shells cannot be. Plus, a large number of sorties will be needed to supply gasoline to UAV positions,” the officer explains.
With limited logistics, hromadske interlocutors warn, the worst can happen: cut-off logistics routes will mean that the defenders will have no chance to exit the city.
"From a thousand to one and a half thousand people could be surrounded"
Despite some military interlocutors still believing that the situation in the city can be stabilized, the majority make pessimistic forecasts. The president’s words that “in Pokrovsk our forces control the situation” are questioned.
“So far, it is only getting worse,” drone operator Valeriy comments on the latest statements from the military-political leadership.
“This is just another fortress. Do we have too few fortresses in this war? And now another one or two is being added,” notes the marine infantryman defending Myrnohrad.
To the question of what needs to be conveyed to the command, one high-ranking officer responds:
“That there is a great threat of encirclement, if regrouping is not carried out, then part of the people will die, part will be captured. If no one gives the command for regrouping, from a thousand to one and a half thousand soldiers may end up in encirclement,” he notes.