Russia seeks alternative grain routes as Black Sea exports plunge, Ukrainian intelligence says
Russia is trying to redirect grain exports to Baltic and Arctic ports and overland routes to China after shipments through the Black Sea fell sharply, but infrastructure and logistics constraints prevent those routes from replacing its southern ports, according to Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service.
Russia shipped 347,000 metric tons of wheat through the Black Sea during the second 10-day period of September, down from 1.3 million tons during the same period in 2025, the intelligence service said. Shipments through Novorossiysk fell to 72,500 tons from 696,000 tons a year earlier.
Moscow is now attempting to redirect some exports through the Baltic Sea. The Ultramar terminal at Ust-Luga received rail delivery requests for about 260,000 tons of grain in September, but the route can handle only around 500,000 tons per month even at full capacity, according to Ukrainian intelligence.
By comparison, Russia’s southern ports have annual capacity of more than 60 million tons and handled nearly 90% of the country’s seaborne grain exports last year.
Russia is also testing a northern route through Murmansk. Russian Railways approved an initial shipment of 40,000 tons from Stavropol Krai, but transporting grain from Russia’s main producing regions to the Arctic port adds an estimated $18–$25 per ton in costs.
Moscow has meanwhile expanded overland grain shipments to China. Volumes through the so-called New Land Grain Corridor increased from 2.3 million tons in 2024 to 5.8 million in 2025 and are expected to reach around 9 million tons this year.
That route also faces limits including rail and terminal capacity, tariffs, Chinese quotas and phytosanitary requirements, the intelligence service said.
“Russia can distribute some of its grain across other routes, but it cannot assemble them into a new system of the same scale,” the agency said.