NATO weighs biggest military planning overhaul in 20 years to prioritize defense against Russia
NATO allies are considering their biggest overhaul of military planning in at least two decades, potentially dropping a requirement to maintain enough forces for both a major war in Europe and multiple smaller missions abroad as the alliance focuses on deterring Russia.
The proposal is part of early negotiations among NATO's 32 member states over future military capability requirements, Politico reported on November 10, citing four NATO diplomats briefed on a draft planning document.
Under the current approach, allies are expected to prepare for a large-scale European conflict and several crisis-management operations outside NATO territory. The draft would replace that requirement with preparations for one scenario or the other, allowing countries to concentrate resources on defending Europe.
The proposed shift would not automatically end existing NATO missions in places such as Kosovo or Iraq. Diplomats emphasized that negotiations are still at an early stage and no final decision has been made.
The discussions reflect a growing focus on Russia's military threat following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, as well as pressure from Washington for European allies to take greater responsibility for their own defense.
Former NATO Assistant Secretary General for Defense Investment Camille Grand told Politico that a major European security crisis would inevitably take priority over other operations.
The proposal has also exposed differences within the alliance. The United States, Nordic countries and NATO members closest to Russia generally favor prioritizing European defense, while southern European allies have traditionally placed greater emphasis on crisis-management missions and international partnerships.
NATO officials also face growing budget constraints and uncertainty over the future scale of the U.S. military presence in Europe. The Pentagon is expected to present a review of its European deployments next month, according to Politico.
Allies are negotiating a document known as Political Guidance, which is expected to be agreed upon by February. It forms part of a four-year planning cycle scheduled to conclude with the approval of new military capability requirements in 2029.
European defense officials have warned that Russia could pose a direct military threat to NATO territory by the end of the decade. However, those assessments are warnings about a potential threat, not predictions of a confirmed Russian attack.
NATO did not respond to Politico's request for comment.