Is Russia planning a new offensive on Kharkiv? What experts say and how Ukrainian government is preparing

The fact that the Russians are preparing a new offensive for May-June has been discussed at the highest level. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has also recently spoken about this.

Information that a possible Russian offensive would be focused on Kharkiv Oblast has been circulating in the media since the beginning of the year. At the time, the Ukrainian government and military dismissed the fears, noting that the situation had not changed and that no troop concentrations had been recorded. Moreover, since the fall, the Russian occupation forces had been trying to break through the defense on the Kupyansk axis, but failed.

However, talk of an offensive on Kharkiv has resumed after the so-called elections in Russia.

"We cannot ignore any information about the enemy's preparations for offensive actions, so we are taking all measures to adequately respond to such a possibility," commented Oleksandr Syrskyi, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

How likely is an offensive?

Ground Forces Commander Oleksandr Pavliuk said that Russia is creating a new 100,000-strong grouping, presumably for a summer offensive. However, the troops may not necessarily be used for this purpose, but rather to replenish units that are losing their combat capability.

Pavliuk added that Russia's plans are not known for certain, but Ukraine will do "everything to inflict maximum losses on the enemy."

Putin's statements about the creation of a "sanitary zone" along the Russian-Ukrainian border to prevent shelling of Russian territory also muddy the waters.

"I'm not ready to talk about what and how we should annex. I do not exclude that at some point we will have to create a certain sanitary zone in the territories under the control of the Kyiv regime," Putin said when asked about the "accession" of Kharkiv Oblast to Russia.

It is not clear what the "sanitary zone" means, but Russian propagandists have said that it was specifically Kharkiv Oblast.

For example, Meduza's interlocutor believes that Russia's top leadership allegedly aims to capture Kharkiv and gradually end the war. Another outlet Verstka wrote that the Russian leadership plans to mobilize up to 300,000 Russians in the near future, allegedly to surround the eastern Ukrainian city.

Ukrainian analysts believe that this information is a Russian propaganda fake. Yulia Dukach, head of the disinformation research department at Texty.org.ua, said that the Russians are taking advantage of the atmosphere of fear that has emerged after the intensification of attacks on Kharkiv to spread disinformation.

"Together with anonyms, Russian propaganda can feed readers anything. The Center for Countering Disinformation and all objective information shows that this is a lie. The Russians have no opportunity to attack Kharkiv right now. This is an outright manipulation," stressed Dukach.

What do experts say?

Serhii Kuzan, head of the Ukrainian Security and Cooperation Center, believes that such a scenario is unlikely at this time. He explains that "a much larger grouping" is needed to attack Kharkiv, and Russia does not have such a reserve now.

Kuzan said in a comment to hromadske that we are now witnessing a situation that was recently experienced in Sumy Oblast. The intensification of shelling was accompanied by information that the Russian occupation forces could attack this region. The expert added that Ukrainian intelligence will know when the threat of an offensive increases.

Former SBU officer Ivan Stupak told hromadske that it is obvious that Kharkiv is among the Russian targets, but they cannot implement their plan now. Therefore, the latest attacks on the city are aimed at weakening it in order to exert psychological pressure.

But the authorities are preparing, right?

In an interview with Ukrinform, Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said that the Ukrainian side is currently carrying out a large set of fortification works in Kharkiv Oblast, installing a comprehensive system of barriers and planning the use of troops in the event of an offensive.

"We already have experience of combat operations in Kharkiv Oblast, we managed to ‘see right through’ the enemy and liberate a significant part of Kharkiv Oblast. It was then that the Russian front collapsed on a large scale. If the Russians move there again, Kharkiv will become a fatal city for them," he said.

Kharkiv Mayor Ihor Terekhov is convinced that the Russians will not succeed in degrading the city. He claims that there is no panic and people are united. He also called the possible offensive a Russian information special operation.

The worst-case scenario, Terekhov says, is constant air raids. That is why the city needs modern air defense systems. The mayor added that he sees no reason to evacuate Kharkiv now.

"The evacuation is coming from the area where the hostilities are going on. And these people are coming to Kharkiv. Currently, the city has 1.3 million residents. So far, neither we nor the military sees any reason to evacuate Kharkiv. This is a part of the Russian psyops to intimidate and make the citizens nervous," he said.