One, two, three (years) and fly? Is it possible to resume the work of civil aviation before the end of the war?
UA skies have been closed to civilian aviation since the beginning of the full—scale war. Since then, the only way to travel abroad is by land through neighboring countries. It means hours of travel for people and millions in losses for airports. Ryanair was the first to talk about the resumption of civil flights, then UA airlines embraced the idea. Can we take to the skies before the war ends?
Why did the discussion start again?
In July, Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary said that the airline was ready to resume flights to Ukraine before the end of the full-scale war. But only under one condition: the Ukrainian government must convince European security authorities.
Ryanair is considering two options: to resume flights after the war ends or as early as 2023, even despite the hostilities.
On August 15, it was reported that the Ukrainian airline Air Ocean Airlines wants to resume flights from Ukraine or other countries. The airline's director, Vyacheslav Heryha, said the company could fly with An-148 aircraft.
How, in theory, can the flights be conducted?
Airports in Ukraine are idle due to the full-scale invasion, causing huge losses for the entire industry. That is why private airline companies are talking about resuming civilian flights.
Airlines could potentially resume flights on L-410 aircraft that carry up to 20 passengers. It is possible, although even such an airplane "can be hunted by the Russians," aviation expert Valeriy Romanenko told hromadske.
But airplanes for this number of passengers are not cheap. The ticket price will include airport maintenance, taxes, navigation fees, salaries for pilots and staff, etc.
The Ukrainian airline SkyUp says it is ready to fly as soon as the sky opens for civil aviation. SkyUp CEO Dmytro Sieroukhov is convinced that the resumption of flights contributes to the restart of the economy, creating tens of thousands of jobs and comfortable, safe transportation for Ukrainians who are now scattered around the world.
SkyUp expects insurance companies to start providing the necessary insurance for flights in the Ukrainian sky.
"Perhaps Ukraine will start insuring the airplanes, but it will be only insurance provided by the state because private insurance is smart enough not to do it because it will go bankrupt. A modern airplane requires hundreds of millions of dollars... For the Russians, burning down an airplane of any airline is purely a pleasure," Romanenko said.
Can civil aviation operate again?
The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine considers this unlikely during the full-scale war. Spokesperson Yurii Ihnat explained that the threat of enemy missile strikes is constantly present throughout the country.
"It's hard to understand how flights can be carried out under war conditions. You see, we had a "grain corridor" from which Russia single-handedly withdrew," Ihnat said, adding that Russia's ballistic missiles can reach the target in a few minutes.
Moreover, during martial law, all airfields in Ukraine are operational, meaning they are performing some tasks.
Expert Valeriy Romanenko shares his opinion. He does not believe in resuming air transportation during the war, as it is too dangerous in the current situation.
In addition, Ukraine is waiting for F-16 fighter jets, and the first opportunity to use them will be from international airports. And there is no need for "extra eyes" there, Romanenko said.
The only way to resume civilian flights during the war is a clear agreement to stop the attacks. If there are guarantees of a mutual ceasefire, it will be possible to consider the resumption of aviation.
When?
In April this year, the European Organization for the Safety of Air Navigation published a forecast for the development of the aviation industry until 2029. They believe that restrictions on flights over Ukraine, Russia, Belarus, and Moldova will remain in place for almost 7 years.
The Ukrainian State Air Traffic Services Enterprise disagrees with this. They said that the airspace would be opened immediately after the end of hostilities and Ukraine's victory.
According to expert Valeriy Romanenko, the most likely option is to resume civilian flights 2-3 months after the end of the war when it is clear that the fighting will not continue and the infrastructure can be restored.
SkyUp also noted that this could be a matter of several months if preparatory work is started now. The company's CEO believes that the process of resuming operations will depend on the proactive position of the state, the interest of international investors, and the solvency of Ukrainians.
Dmytro Sieroukhov says that SkyUp is ready to organize the first flights in just a few days after the opening of the skies over Ukraine. However, restoring the coordinated work of the entire complex of carriers, airports, and handling services will take at least months.