An effective imperialist instead of an ineffective one. Why Putin fired Shoigu and what it means for Ukraine

Russia's military top brass has been reshuffled: for the first time in 12 years, the aggressor state will change its defense minister. At the same time, the current head of the department, Sergei Shoigu, became the secretary of the Security Council. The self-proclaimed president of Russia, Vladimir Putin, has proposed to appoint Andrey Belousov as the new head of the Defense Ministry.

Putin's spokesman explained the reshuffle as "openness to innovation and advanced ideas." He added that "it is important to integrate the economy of the security wing into the country's economy."

Indeed, Andrey Belousov is an economist who advocates a significant state presence in all areas and strict regulation, the BBC writes. Over the past decade, he has served as minister of economic development, Putin's aide, and first deputy prime minister of the Russian Federation.

We look into why the Russian leader is changing his war minister right now and how it will affect Ukraine.

Preparing for a long war?

The appointment of Belousov shows that the Kremlin is preparing for a long war, analysts at the American Institute for the Study of War believe. The new head of the Russian Defense Ministry has no military experience and is an economist, not a military officer. This is not an anomaly, though, as his predecessor, Sergei Shoigu, also did not serve before he was appointed to the Defense Ministry.

Instead, Belousov can draw on the experience of almost 10 years as minister of economic development, as well as participation in innovative projects, including those related to drones. The Institute for the Study of War notes that this has "well prepared" Belousov for the post of head of the country's Defense Ministry, which is fighting the largest war in Europe since World War II.

In addition, Russian sources claimed that the new appointment demonstrates serious concerns about the criticized level of corruption in the Defense Ministry under Shoigu's leadership. They note that Belousov himself has never been caught in corruption schemes during his years in government.

"Belousov has a stronger reputation for being an effective technocrat, and insider sources have claimed that he has a positive relationship with Putin, who likely intends Belousov to use his experience in a civilian government position to bridge federal economic policies with the Russian MoD agenda," analysts suggest.

What does the Western media say?

The Guardian quoted an unnamed Defense Ministry official who worked with Shoigu as saying: "The Kremlin wants the ministry to be led by an economist who knows how to streamline its operations."

Meanwhile, the New York Times notes that the actual resignation of Sergei Shoigu is no less important: Putin has removed from the military helm a man whom Russian pro-war commentators and Western analysts considered partly responsible for Moscow's many failures at the beginning of the full-scale war against Ukraine.

"By installing an economist, he tacitly acknowledged the importance of industrial might to any military victory," the newspaper adds.

The Washington Post points out that for more than two years, the Kremlin has cited the need to appoint a civilian to head the Defense Ministry who could "introduce innovation" and manage the military economy as military spending has skyrocketed..

What does this mean for Ukraine?

Ivan Tymochko, a military expert and chairman of the Council of Reservists of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, told hromadske that Putin is now entering a new period of his cadence, which he has already prescribed for the next 10 years, so he is building a new team for this purpose. In addition, his longtime henchman Shoigu is unlikely to be able to operate effectively in the future.

"If the war requires new relations between Russia and other countries, Belousov, who has worked in the economic sphere and has strong ties to Russia's former and current partners, is well suited for the position. That is, this is a strategy that Putin is laying down with an eye to the international arena," the expert predicts.

According to Tymochko, if Putin wants to continue the war against Ukraine, he must economically satisfy Russian citizens who could potentially become soldiers. At the same time, Shoigu and his team were accused of embezzling funds allocated for the military.

"For Ukraine, this is a change from one imperialist to another. The war will continue, nothing will change either tactically or strategically. Those directly responsible for the war against Ukraine remain in office," Tymochko adds.

Oleksiy Yizhak, an expert at the National Institute for Strategic Studies, agrees that the changes in the Russian leadership indicate preparations for a long war. And he draws attention to the role of the partnership with communist China in this.

"The war requires resources, so the Kremlin wants to manage finances more economically and wisely. They found an experienced economist, Belousov. "Over the past year, he was in charge of procurement for the Russian military," said Yizhak.

In his opinion, Shoigu was removed from the position of the head of the ministry not because of the situation on the battlefield, but because of problems with funding. And such changes in leadership, according to the expert, may not be beneficial for Ukraine.

"Belousov is a person who can be a muffler for economic troubles, continue to find options for financing the armed forces of the Russian Federation. From this point of view, this is a better figure for them than Shoigu," he said.