Olympic Truce push and Global Peace Summit in Switzerland: a roadmap to end Russia's war in Ukraine?

Who initiated the Global Peace Summit?

The event was convened by Ukraine itself. This February, during a speech at the Ukraine. Year 2024 forum, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said: "We do not want any negotiation formats, any 'peace formulas' to be imposed on us by countries that are not here today, not at war. It is very important that the initiative comes from Ukraine alone."

Back in January, Switzerland agreed to host the congress. President of the country Viola Amherd expressed hope that this conference would be able to enact "everything that has already been achieved" at earlier meetings to discuss the "peace formula." The Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs will play an organizational role.

What does Ukraine propose?

The Global Peace Summit was preceded by meetings to discuss the "peace formula" that Volodymyr Zelenskyy presented back in November 2022 at the G20 leaders' summit.

The "formula" consists of 10 steps designed to restore peace and territorial integrity of Ukraine:

1. Radiation and nuclear safety.
2. Food security.
3. Energy security.
4. Release of prisoners and deported persons.
5. Restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity.
6. Withdrawal of Russian troops and cessation of hostilities.
7. Restoration of justice.
8. Ecological safety.
9. Preventing escalation and repetition of aggression.
10. Confirmation of the end of the war.

This is the official position of Ukraine on how to end the war fairly. The President and his team have repeatedly stated that Ukraine will not accept any form of frozen conflict or territorial losses.

Four meetings have already been held to discuss the "peace formula" at the level of advisors to the heads of state, with the most recent one taking place in January during the International Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. The event was attended by representatives of 81 countries and international organizations. This is more than at a similar event in Malta in October 2023, but less than the number of participants planned for Lucerne in June 2024.

During each meeting, advisors to the state leaders worked on individual points for peace. In Davos, they considered the withdrawal of Russian troops, the restoration of justice, environmental safety, the prevention of escalation and recurrence of the war, and confirmation of its end.

At the meeting in Davos, the head of the Ukrainian Presidential Office, Andriy Yermak, explained that a platform was now needed that would "fix specific parts of our comprehensive plan."

Such a platform will allow us to start developing detailed roadmaps for each of the points of the "formula." The countries that undertake to become leaders in the respective areas of the "formula" could host thematic conferences and finalize the implementation of decisions there.Andriy Yermak, head of the Office of the President of Ukraine

Apparently, the Ukrainian authorities are planning to make the Global Peace Summit such a platform.

Earlier, the "peace formula" was supported by the UN General Assembly, as well as by the heads of state and government of 46 countries at the Council of Europe summit.

Russia’s reaction

The day before the Ukrainian president and Swiss President Viola Amherd confirmed the agreement to hold the summit in Lucerne at a joint press conference, Ignazio Cassis, the country's foreign minister, said that Russia would have to be included in the peace talks, although he agreed that the Kremlin showed no interest in a ceasefire.

At the same time, President Zelenskyy said that Ukraine does not expect Russian representatives at the first Global Peace Summit. According to him, the participants will first develop a plan to resolve each of the crises caused by the war, and then prepare a document based on it, which will be handed over to Russia.

We want to get a result – a just peace for Ukraine. Therefore, first, civilized countries will develop a plan, and only then will they involve representatives of Russia who want a just peace.Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine

According to the Ukrainian leader, only then will it be possible to hold a second peace summit. However, Russia itself calls the "peace formula" "detached from reality" and rejects the proposal to voluntarily withdraw its troops from the occupied territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts and the Crimean peninsula.

Moscow also does not agree to the prospect of paying reparations and extraditing war criminals to an international tribunal. Instead, the Russian Foreign Ministry outlined its vision of "achieving a sustainable peace" that demands that Ukraine:

• return to non-aligned status and consolidate its non-nuclear status;
• internationally recognize the "new territorial realities" – that is, the occupation of the territory of four Ukrainian oblasts and the Crimean peninsula;
• carry out "demilitarization" and "denazification" ;
• eliminate "all threats emanating from its territory";
• embody "guarantees of observance of the rights of the Russian-speaking population" and national minorities.

Moscow also demanded that Ukraine's partners stop providing military aid and stop sending "mercenaries," as it claims. As expected, the Kremlin is also seeking the lifting of all sanctions and lawsuits against Russia in international institutions.

Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev has put forward even more humiliating demands for Ukraine – complete surrender, loss of subjectivity, and becoming part of Russia. He also insists that Ukraine must pay compensation to Russia and carry out "forced denazification" of all government bodies under UN supervision.

Eventually, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova announced that Russia would not participate in the first peace summit to be held in Switzerland, even if invited.

What about China?

China, which calls the Russian invasion the "Ukrainian crisis," first joined the discussion of the "peace formula" in August 2023 at a meeting in Saudi Arabia. The day after the conference, Foreign Minister Wang Yi had a telephone conversation with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, assuring him that Beijing would "uphold an independent and impartial position, sound an objective and rational voice, actively promote peace talks, and strive to seek a political solution on any international multilateral occasion."

Earlier, in February 2023, China unveiled its position on resolving the "Ukrainian crisis." That plan contained 12 points:

1. Respecting the sovereignty of all countries.
2. Abandoning the Cold War mentality, which implies the rejection of strengthening and expanding military blocs.
3. Ceasing hostilities.
4. Resuming peace talks.
5. Resolving the humanitarian crisis.
6. Protecting civilians and prisoners of war.
7. Keeping nuclear power plants safe.
8. Reducing strategic risks, preventing the use of chemical, biological or nuclear weapons.
9. Facilitating grain exports.
10. Stopping unilateral sanctions.
11. Keeping industrial and supply chains stable.
12. Promoting post-conflict reconstruction.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China emphasizes that "there is no simple solution to a complex problem" and that all parties should "contribute to the creation of a balanced, effective, and sustainable European security architecture."

At the time, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov replied that Russia agreed with China's "peace plan." European officials also welcomed China's participation in the two-day summit in Saudi Arabia, calling it the highlight of the event.

After the announcement of the Global Peace Summit in Switzerland, the Chinese government immediately made it clear that the participation of other BRICS countries – Brazil, India, China, and South Africa – in the event was extremely important to Beijing.

Subsequently, Chinese Ambassador to Switzerland Wang Shitin suggested in an interview with the local newspaper Neue Zuercher Zeitung that his country might take part in the event. However, it remains to be seen whether a delegation from Beijing will come to Lucerne.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that China can indeed help restore peace that is fair to Ukraine, as well as stability in international relations.

But despite the Ukrainian leader's friendly stance toward China, the Chinese representative stressed that attempts to resolve the situation without Russian involvement are futile.

"Olympic Truce" – Macron's new proposal

If peace is a long story, a truce can be achieved much faster. At least, this is what France hopes for. A month after the Global Peace Summit, the Summer Olympics will begin in Paris. President Macron, who had previously suggested sending French troops to Ukraine, now wants to establish an "Olympic Truce" in Ukraine and Gaza.

Emmanuel Macron also said that he would ask China to help in this matter. Chinese leader Xi Jinping himself plans to visit France in early May.

Politico, citing sources, said that China is trying to convince Europe to allow Russia to participate in peace talks. Otherwise, Beijing will boycott such meetings.

Before that, in April, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz paid a visit to China. He also called on the Chinese president to "influence" Russia to end its war against Ukraine.

So does the Global Summit have any prospects?

Hryhoriy Perepelytsia, Director of the Institute of Foreign Policy Studies, Doctor of Political Science, doubts that the Global Peace Summit can bring progress in resolving the Russo-Ukrainian war. The political scientist is sure that Russia will agree to negotiate only if Ukraine and the West surrender.

"There are certain conditions under which the parties agree to negotiate. For example, when both sides realize that the final goals are unattainable in a war on both sides. Or, for example, when there is a lack of resources, and then the victory will be Pyrrhic," explains Hryhoriy Perepelytsia.

Other conditions for a truce include the parties' willingness to adhere to the agreements and trust each other. However, Putin does not want to give up on his goals – the destruction of Ukraine as a state and Ukrainians as a nation, Perepelytsia stresses.

This is a conflict of identities. It is impossible to achieve peace if Russians do not want to recognize our Ukrainian identity, and this has been the case for 300 years. At the same time, the recognition of Ukrainians as an independent nation will put an end to the identity of Russians, who will have to revise their history.Hryhoriy Perepelytsia, director of the Institute of Foreign Policy Studies

The political scientist notes that Putin has set a goal to restore Russian control over the entire Central and Eastern Europe, as it was during the Cold War. This, he says, would allow him to have influence over the entire world.

Perepelytsia cites as an example a draft with "security guarantees" from the United States and NATO, which the Russian Foreign Ministry published on December 17, 2021. In the documents, Russia demanded that NATO not expand eastward and not include states that used to be part of the USSR, including Ukraine.

"The US and NATO rejected these demands. Then Putin started the war, and now he is not going to stop," says the political scientist.

From this point of view, the Russo-Ukrainian war is just the beginning of World War III for a new redistribution of the world. That is why another world leader, China, is trying to turn the "American-centered unipolar world into a China-centered one." Consequently, China is also not interested in Ukraine's victory, because for Beijing, it is primarily a victory for the West. Even if the Chinese "12 points" do not explicitly state this, China is interested in the continuation of the war or Russia's success in it, Perepelytsia argues.

China wants to remove the United States from global leadership and global dominance, and for this, it needs an ally like Russia. This is where the strategic interests of Russia and China coincide.Hryhoriy Perepelytsia, director of the Institute of Foreign Policy Studies

Nevertheless, the professor believes that the Global Peace Summit is timely, as Ukraine is taking a proactive stance in a shaky international situation. Russia has destroyed the world order, and existing institutions, such as the UN, have failed to prevent the war in the first place, and now cannot stop it.

Therefore, the allies are interested in a platform for developing a new concept of global security. It is important that Ukraine, in the first part of the "peace formula", which deals with nuclear security, food and energy security, lays the foundations for such a system.

“Holding the Global Peace Summit will ultimately have a positive impact on Ukraine's diplomatic image, but in the short term, it is unlikely to bring an end to the war," Perepelytsia concluded.