From Pyongyang to Kursk: Why North Korea is sending troops to fight against Ukraine and what to do about it

Motivation and language barrier

Military cooperation between Russia and the DPRK intensified in the second year of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine: Vladimir Putin appealed to the North Korean leader when he was running out of Soviet missiles and artillery ammunition. Kim Jong Un did not refuse his fellow dictator: weapons production is perhaps the only sector of the DPRK economy that is profitable.

According to South Korean intelligence estimates, since the start of the full-scale invasion, the DPRK has supplied Russia with more than 8 million 122-mm and 152-mm artillery shells, as well as Bulsae-4 anti-tank missiles, KN-23 short-range ballistic missiles, and ammunition for hand-held anti-tank grenade launchers. When North Korean shells and ballistic missiles began to fall on the heads of Ukrainians, few could have imagined that this was only the first stage of North Korea's involvement.

On the one hand, the participation of North Korean troops in the war against Ukraine may indicate heavy losses of the Russian army and problems with its replenishment. On the other hand, the DPRK army is the fifth largest in the world in terms of the number of soldiers, so its participation in the war against our country poses a real threat.

In total, the DPRK's armed forces number 1.28 million soldiers, of which 1.1 million are in the ground forces alone. The army in North Korea is conscripted, with both men and women serving in it. Conscript service for men lasts 10 years, and for women – 5 years. The country with a population of 26 million has 120,000 trained special forces soldiers.

"The monthly losses of the Russian army in Ukraine are more than 30,000 killed and wounded. So, the Russians need about 30,000-35,000 recruits to compensate for the losses. They have problems with recruiting personnel now. No wonder they raised the premium for signing contracts with the armed forces to $35,000.

Therefore, Russia does not mind using Koreans. Although the current involvement cannot be called a factor that could radically change the number of Russian troops in the confrontation with Ukraine," military analyst Mykhailo Samus told hromadske.

The effectiveness of the involvement of the Korean military in the current war remains to be seen. It is not known how they will behave when units suffer heavy losses on the battlefield. However, we should not expect the language barrier to be an obstacle, the military analyst believes.

"The language factor is not difficult to overcome. For example, Koreans can fight in regiments. In this case, communication with the Russian army will take place at the regimental headquarters level, and the language barrier will not interfere with coordination. Problems will arise if Korean soldiers are thrown into Russian units," explains Samus.

Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence, asserts that North Korean soldiers will be highly motivated on the battlefield: if they fail to meet the expectations of their command, their families may be executed.

Why is North Korea helping Russia?

The first reports that the DPRK military was directly involved in the war against Ukraine on the side of Russia began to come from the South Korean National Intelligence Service in August 2024. At that time, they concerned military advisers and specialists who helped the Russians maintain North Korean ballistic missiles.

According to South Korean intelligence, Kim Jong Sik, Deputy Director of the Munitions Industry Department, who is one of the key figures in the DPRK's missile program, has already visited the launch site for North Korean KN-23 ballistic missiles near the Russo-Ukrainian front several times. Kim Jong Sik has traveled to Russia with dozens of North Korean officers, advising his Russian counterparts on the ground.

The Russians are also likely to use the services of North Korean engineering troops. During the Korean War in 1950-1953, the North Korean army pioneered the so-called tunnel warfare: its engineering brigades built barracks and command posts underground. The tunnels at a depth of about 100 meters protected troops from air and artillery strikes and were also used to enter the enemy's rear. Russian army soldiers used elements of tunnel warfare during last year's battle for Avdiyivka: the aggressor penetrated the Ukrainian rear by moving underground.

In exchange for military assistance, Russia provides North Korea with food, fuel, money, and technology for the development of nuclear weapons, spymaster Budanov said in an interview with the Economist.

Cooperation between Russia and the DPRK continues within the framework of the strategic cooperation agreement signed in June this year during Vladimir Putin's visit to North Korea. According to the Wall Street Journal, the agreement contains a secret clause on the participation of the DPRK military in the war against Ukraine.

China's Cerberus and a weapons factory for Russia

North Korea is not an independent geopolitical player, but rather a protege of China, just like Russia itself, Mykhailo Samus argues. Mykhailo Honchar, an expert on energy and security relations, also doubts that Kim Jong Un can make important foreign policy decisions without Beijing's blessing.

"North Korea's GDP does not exceed a few billion dollars. The economy is 90% dependent on China. It is ridiculous to say that North Korea is able to diversify its relations thanks to Russia. Kim Jong Un does not do anything that could cause Xi Jinping's displeasure. Pyongyang cannot act freely on the European continent without a directive from Beijing," Mykhailo Honchar told hromadske.

Any reports of disagreements between Beijing and Pyongyang are disinformation to disorient the West, Mykhailo Honchar adds. According to him, the so-called axis of evil has "full synergy of efforts and all roles are assigned."

"Currently, the axis of evil is the union of China, Russia, North Korea, Iran, and Belarus. China remains in the shadows, coming up with various peace initiatives, and North Korea has been assigned the role of Cerberus. Each member of this coalition acts in a format acceptable to them. The situation requires a tough response from the West, but we see nothing but deep concern," Honchar said.

Russia's victory is in China's interests, as the occupation of Ukraine will open the door for China to enter the European market directly, adds Samus. Therefore, Pyongyang's support for Moscow is no accident.

With the assistance of China, Russia has turned the DPRK into a weapons factory, investing Chinese yuan in the development of the North Korean military-industrial complex, which Moscow receives from the sale of Russian energy resources to Beijing. Moreover, North Korea receives technology from Russia, and machines and components for weapons production from China.

In fact, the DPRK is now experiencing its "golden age." The war brings money to the militaristic regime in Pyongyang, whose incompetent economic policy has repeatedly caused famine among the disenfranchised North Korean citizens.

The West's weak reaction and South Korea's assistance

North Korea's involvement in the war opens up opportunities for Ukraine: the outlines of a new alliance between Ukraine and South Korea are emerging on the horizon. After all, Russia's rapprochement with the DPRK poses a threat not only to Kyiv but also to Seoul. South Korea is forced to act decisively, as the strengthening of its totalitarian neighbor is not in its interests.

Currently, the South Korean government is considering sending military personnel to Ukraine to identify North Korean military personnel and analyze the tactics of the DPRK army units. Moreover, Seoul does not exclude the supply of defensive and offensive weapons to Ukraine, said Kim Tae-hyo, South Korea’s deputy national security adviser.

South Korea is one of the ten largest arms manufacturers and exporters in the world. The South Korean army has a number of effective air defense systems, including the Cheongung-II medium-range air defense missile system, which could help Ukraine defend itself against Russian and North Korean ballistic missiles.

In general, South Korea has a lot to offer Ukraine: from aviation to 155-millimeter artillery shells of its own production, which could offset the Russian advantage in ammunition, says Samus. However, so far, Seoul has provided Kyiv with only non-lethal aid and humanitarian support.

"South Korea could very quickly arm those brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces that now need to be reinforced by giving us tanks of its own production and excellent self-propelled artillery systems from its army warehouses. Seoul can send Kyiv virtually the entire range of weapons needed to wage an intense war. Unlike our European partners, South Korea has not been resting for 30 years, but has been producing weapons," the military analyst stresses. 

The West could also give a tough response to the DPRK's entry into the war by blocking the transportation of Russian oil through the Baltic Sea. It is through this route that Russia sends at least half of its oil for sale. The deficit of Russian oil on world markets could be compensated by Saudi Arabia, which has already announced its intention to increase production. The Saudis have every opportunity to do so, argues Honchar. But so far, the West has not spoken.

In addition, Western countries could consider a symmetrical response: deploying a limited contingent of troops to Ukraine to guard the border with Belarus. Such a step would allow Ukraine to free up resources to strengthen its defense on the eastern and southern fronts. However, until the presidential election in the United States is over, this scenario seems unrealistic, according to Honchar.

What should Ukraine do?

Ukraine does not have to wait for advice from its partners and can find a way to demonstrate to Kim Jong Un that he made a big mistake when he entered the war. The decision to send troops to Europe could have devastating consequences for the DPRK if Kyiv plays its cards right, Edward Hunter Christie, former deputy head of NATO's Innovation Unit, told hromadske.

"Now the DPRK is actually at war with Ukraine, which means that Kyiv has every right to launch a counterattack on North Korean territory. Even if it is difficult to do, Ukrainians should consider this possibility. The danger is that the West is too timid. However, Ukraine should try to do something on its own without asking anyone for permission.

Perhaps the Special Operations Forces can help with this. Obviously, this is a very sensitive issue that requires careful analysis, excellent planning, a lot of resources, and very skillful strategic communication both before and after," says Christie.

Ukraine has repeatedly proved that it is capable of dealing painful blows to its enemies far beyond its own national borders. Now Russia and North Korea are testing the waters to see how far they can go on the escalation path. If they don't get a tough response, the 12,000 North Korean soldiers could quickly turn into 50,000, Christie said.

Ultimately, deepening military cooperation with Russia and sending DPRK troops to Ukraine is beneficial to Kim Jong Un. The North Korean army will have the opportunity to gain experience in modern warfare, while the Kim regime will receive huge profits. Unless Pyongyang and Moscow face opposition, they are unlikely to stop. Meanwhile, China will patiently observe the developments, reaping the benefits from the sidelines and exposing the West's weaknesses.