Psychology of Zelenskyy-Putin meeting: Leveraging pain points for Ukraine's advantage
The Ukrainian president already has experience in face-to-face negotiations with Vladimir Putin. On December 9, 2019, in Paris, they had a nearly 90-minute conversation in the format of the "The Normandy Four, also known as the Normandy Format, is a group consisting of representatives from Ukraine, Germany, France, and Russia that is working to find ways to resolve the conflict in eastern Ukraine. Its main goal is to discuss and find solutions to de-escalate the situation and achieve peace in the region.Normandy Four."
Recalling that meeting five years later, Volodymyr Zelenskyy noted that it now seems to him like events from another life. He remembers the details poorly, except that the meeting seemed to him "very long." Is that why such memories exist, because psychologically, Zelenskyy felt not very confident at the Élysée Palace?
At that time, they and Putin refused photo and video shoots of their conversation. In joint photos with Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron, Putin sat bristling, while Zelenskyy smiled or looked as if he was not in his element.
In December 2019, Volodymyr Zelenskyy was still convinced: all he needed was to look Putin in the eyes — and he would immediately agree to "stop shooting."
"Zelenskyy didn't yet know how dangerous Putin is, to what extent he is a psychopathic person," says Svitlana Chunikhina, deputy director of the Institute of Social and Political Psychology of the National Academy of Pedagogical Sciences of Ukraine.
Over the years that have passed since then, Volodymyr Zelenskyy has had to solve many very complex state problems. In negotiations with the leaders of other countries, he has become a real heavyweight. And he has had the opportunity to figure out Putin well.
With Svitlana Chunikhina, we reflect on the psychological aspects of a possible meeting between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Putin.
Zelenskyy's childlike sincerity
Chunikhina proceeds from the fact that the meeting that may take place between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Putin should not be considered negotiations in the direct sense of the word. After all, the goals of Ukraine and Russia are opposite. And the meeting will take place at the desire of the U.S. president. So it cannot be about bringing the positions of the negotiating parties closer, about a compromise between them, and mutually beneficial agreements.
"We shouldn't think that Zelenskyy is going to negotiations with Putin to achieve an end to the war. Putin is now ready to end the war only on the condition of our capitulation, which is unacceptable for us," notes Svitlana Chunikhina.
In my opinion, at these so-called negotiations, a complex psychological game will take place: each side will try to prove to Trump that it is the one that most wants peace and is making efforts to achieve it. And that the opposite side is playing a dishonest game that undermines the American president's efforts to achieve peace. And that it is the opposite side that stands between Trump and his dreamed-of Nobel Peace Prize.Svitlana Chunikhina, Deputy Director of the Institute of Political and Social Psychology of the National Academy of Pedagogical Sciences of Ukraine
"Because a lot depends on Trump's position for Russia and Ukraine. For us — armaments and financial aid, strengthening sanctions pressure on our enemy. For Putin — on the contrary, weakening sanctions, weakening Ukraine through refusal of weapons to it, etc.," she adds.
But even if we don't consider the meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin as classic negotiations, we still want it to end with certain positives for the Ukrainian side.
"I think that Volodymyr Zelenskyy has a unique quality that makes him quite strong in negotiations. It's some deep sincerity. His essence rebels against a situation when there is an attempt to manipulate him, pressure him, or lie to him.
Archetypally, our president, in his position, is a child; he sees the situation childlike, without the 'filters' inherent in adults. And he, like children, asks very uncomfortable questions for 'adult' politicians. And with this, he breaks the manipulative game that the opposite side is trying to play. This manifested itself, by the way, both during the meeting of the 'Normandy Four' in Paris and in February of this year in the Oval Office, when Donald Trump lectured him," the researcher argues.
According to her, sincerity in Zelenskyy is combined with a clear awareness that Ukraine is absolutely right, both morally and legally, and from the standpoint of justice, in its demands to Russia and Putin. This adds confidence to him and makes his position unconditionally strong. After all, in no negotiations does he need to lie or wriggle out.
Another advantage of Zelenskyy during communication with Putin may be his sense of humor. Putin doesn't need to be flattered like Trump, but irony and humor can become an additional weapon against him because dictators are afraid of appearing ridiculous.
"Of course, such a position of Zelenskyy will not force Putin to capitulate. But at least it can significantly spoil the Russian game. And it won't be so easy for Putin to knock Zelenskyy off," says Svitlana Chunikhina.
At the same time, she notes that Ukraine's moral rightness categorically does not mean that Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a conversation with Putin should position his country as a victim that has suffered unjust outrage. Because you need to talk to Putin not from the position of a victim, but from the position of a strong opponent.
Putin cannot be destabilized by words
Svitlana Chunikhina characterizes Putin as a very tough person who has always understood that, by his nature, he is stronger and more fearless than others and that he can always find a way to get the upper hand over them. The weak reaction of the Western world to Russian aggression against Ukraine only adds to Putin's certainty.
He is a A psychopath is a person with a psychological disorder characterized by a lack of empathy, manipulative behavior, superficial charm, and a tendency toward cruelty or antisocial behavior. It should be noted that "psychopath" is a term often used in popular culture, while in clinical psychology, the more accurate term is "antisocial personality disorder."psychopath. Such people are less susceptible to fear, ashamed of little, less empathetic to others, and do not feel others' pain. This is a superpower of invulnerability. In a conversation with Putin, you need to appeal as little as possible to the fact that in the war he unleashed, his country is losing people and economic capabilities.Svitlana Chunikhina, Deputy Director of the Institute of Political and Social Psychology of the National Academy of Pedagogical Sciences of Ukraine
"Such arguments are simply absurd for Putin. The only argument that is effective for him is when he realizes that he can no longer continue this war. But now Putin believes that he will win it, that Ukraine is weak, that Trump is an idiot, and Russia has all the possibilities to push the situation in its favor," says the researcher.
According to Chunikhina, it is thanks to his psychopathic nature that Putin excellently "reads" people's emotions. They are working material for him, with which he can work while remaining absolutely cold. And this gives him the ability to control the situation and himself better than others.
The Russian leader constantly uses several techniques during communication with other politicians. For example, he is During the G20 summit in Mexico, Vladimir Putin was 40 minutes late for a meeting with U.S. President Barack Obama. On June 1, 2012, Angela Merkel waited for the Russian president for about an hour before their meeting in Berlin. On November 25, 2013, Vladimir Putin's first meeting with Pope Francis took place in the Vatican. The pontiff waited for the Russian president for 50 minutes.always late for official meetings. Even the Pope had to wait for him for almost an hour. In Alaska, the U.S. president sat on the plane for 40 minutes so as not to stand on the runway looking for Vladimir.
Didn't they teach Putin in the KGB to be punctual? It turns out that they taught him to be precisely unpunctual. Deliberately. To get a psychological advantage over the interlocutor even before the start of communication.
His tardiness is a way to control the situation and the interlocutor. He forces waiting and thereby forces the other side to experience an unpleasant emotional experience through humiliation. This is his way to knock the interlocutor off a predetermined position, to knock the ground out from under their feet. That is, this is a technique of psychological pressure on the interlocutor.Svitlana Chunikhina, Deputy Director of the Institute of Political and Social Psychology of the National Academy of Pedagogical Sciences of Ukraine
Putin knows how to make the interlocutor experience unpleasant emotions and feel insecure in other ways. For example, avoiding the interlocutor's gaze. Or deliberately "not hearing" the other side, clogging the air with a stream of empty phrases. And often — outright lies.
For example, claiming that in the Donbas, on the side of the so-called "militiamen," "vacationers" are fighting who buy weapons at the local military trade. Or, as he did in the negotiations in Minsk, convincing interlocutors that "they are not there."
In such a situation, it is very easy for the interlocutor to "bite the hook" and get involved in Putin's empty words.
"I think that in negotiation situations, what you call a lie is not a lie, but a strategy of one of the sides. That is why it is extremely important for Volodymyr Zelenskyy to have his own clear negotiation strategy and negotiation position on which he must stand firm, so that no manipulative techniques of Putin can knock him off," adds the researcher.
That is, Volodymyr Zelenskyy needs to force the manipulator into the framework of a constructive conversation. However, in the psychologist's opinion, their meeting can be more or less constructive only if it takes place in a situation of a significant military defeat of Russia on the front. And Putin will understand that for him, the best way out of this situation is a constructive position that enables understanding.
Currently, there is no such situation. But is Putin completely devoid of some pain points that should be pressed during negotiations?
"I saw Putin frightened and vulnerable only twice. The first time — when after the falsified elections to the State Duma, he managed to suppress the opposition protests on Bolotnaya Square in Moscow at the beginning of 2012. His behavior then gave me grounds to believe that the opposition movement was a very strong stress for him.
Well, and the second moment — The Wagner PMC mutiny, also known as the Prigozhin mutiny, was a brief internal conflict in Russia between the Ministry of Defense, including the regular army, on the one hand, and the Wagner PMC, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, on the other. Large-scale actions began on the evening of June 23, 2023, after statements by the leader of the Wagner Group, the Russian Internal Troops, and the Russian opposition, and ended on the evening of June 24.Prigozhin's raid on Moscow. And both are connected with a threat to Putin's power. It is unlikely that Zelenskyy will be able to create such a situation in negotiations. Unless he brings with him a convoy from The Hague Tribunal," notes Svitlana Chunikhina.
It turns out that Putin's pain points, his vulnerability are not at all connected with his personal qualities. But he is a human, not a robot!
"Yes, Putin is a human. Probably, he has a strong fear of death, aging — his passion for rejuvenating procedures is known. He is afraid of being poisoned, almost paranoidly. He is afraid to reveal his personal information — he is wary, for example, that his biological fluids do not fall into the hands of foreign intelligence, and hides his personal life from the world," says the researcher.
He is afraid that someone can gain control over his private life and, through it, control over his political activity. Putin very carefully protects these vulnerable places of his. It is unlikely that Zelenskyy has the opportunity to somehow influence them, especially with words. Putin is not afraid of words, even insults — he cannot be destabilized by any word.Svitlana Chunikhina, Deputy Director of the Institute of Political and Social Psychology of the National Academy of Pedagogical Sciences of Ukraine
Svitlana Chunikhina notes that in face-to-face negotiations, especially those concerning the end of the war, one side eventually begins to dominate, and the other accepts it and submits. But you cannot dominate someone who does not submit. Therefore, Zelenskyy must demonstrate resilience.
I don't love you, Vova
From a psychological point of view, additional accents for the meeting of Putin with Zelenskyy may be provided by the nature of their personal relations.
The president of Ukraine, speaking about Putin, always recognized him as a leader who has a decisive influence on the situation, and did not demonstrate either superiority or contempt for him. Instead, he demonstrated anger and rejection.
Putin, on the contrary. He did not miss the opportunity to humiliate Zelenskyy in the position of head of state, to insult, even to call names — a fascist, for example. (And now, by Trump's will, he must sit down with the "fascist" at the negotiating table — this will probably both surprise and anger his supporters in Russia. But nevertheless). This is not about benevolence or even neutrality toward each other.
According to Svitlana Chunikhina, Zelenskyy and Putin are in a state of extreme hostility:
"This means that they both equally, most likely, dehumanize each other. They do not see a human in each other. Real human contact between them is impossible. And in such a situation, it is not worth meeting them to solve important issues. Because they understand, and Donald Trump understands, that peace is currently impossible.
And now the U.S. president is simply deciding to whom — Putin or Zelenskyy — to pass this shame of the failure of his peacekeeping initiatives. Whoever gets this hot potato will face the entire spectrum of negative, tragic, dramatic, and catastrophic consequences. That one will be branded as responsible for the continuation of the war.
In this sense, Zelenskyy has much weaker positions than Putin because Trump is humanly enchanted by Putin. The U.S. president wants the person who takes on his shame of inability to end the war to be not Putin. In this game, Trump is for Putin."
According to the researcher, psychologically, Putin usually needs much less from an interlocutor than the interlocutor does from him. Thanks to his psychological constitution, Putin is not emotionally dependent on the approval of other people. He doesn't want to be liked. And this makes him strong.
"Because often, Putin deals with people who come into politics precisely for approval. By the way, Donald Trump's wild emotional dependence on Putin manifests itself precisely in the fact that Trump is constantly seeking Putin's approval.
I think that Zelenskyy does not have such emotional dependence on Putin; he does not need recognition from him, 'credentials.' Zelenskyy the person needs nothing from Putin the person. Zelenskyy is free from Putin's spells — and this is also to our advantage," asserts the scientist.
Zelenskyy must dare to tell the truth
Putin does not care about being liked by anyone, including ordinary Russians. He has no electoral dependence on his fellow citizens, because Russia has not held fair elections for a quarter of a century. And if the meeting with Zelenskyy ends in nothing, Putin will not cease to be an all-Russian political macho because of that.
And Volodymyr Zelenskyy? In 2019, he went to the elections with a promise to stop hostilities. What will he say to Ukrainians if he returns from Putin empty-handed? That Putin is not ready for peace and we need to fight further? Or that we need to fight further because he, the president of Ukraine, did not find the right arguments in the negotiations? Wherever you throw, everywhere a wedge...
I think that Donald Trump has significantly undermined the resilience, endurance of Ukrainian society in this war, absolutely unreasonably giving hope for the possibility of its early end in a less bloody way than hostilities. He had no right and no grounds to encourage people that the war could end with negotiations right now. Because empty hopes are the most dangerous psychological state, which is little compatible with the possibility of survival in extreme circumstances.Svitlana Chunikhina, Deputy Director of the Institute of Political and Social Psychology of the National Academy of Pedagogical Sciences of Ukraine
"Empty expectations are the inability to adequately respond to the challenges of reality. And therefore, President Zelenskyy, before going to negotiations with Putin, must tell Ukrainians what goal he sets for himself. And about which concessions of ours to the enemy are or are not in question under any circumstances," says Svitlana Chunikhina.
That is, our president must tell us that it's not about “barbecuing shashlik”, not about negotiations to end the war. At the same time, he must play along with Donald Trump and demonstrate faith in the possibility of ending the war thanks to these negotiations. A split — God forbid.
"In Washington now, such a situation that similar games are the only way to somehow ensure armed and financial support for Ukraine. Because this American support today is controlled by Donald Trump, who wants negotiations. And we and Europe are forced to play along with him.
And at the same time, the authorities, scientists, and journalists need to try to ensure that these Ukrainian expectations for negotiations are not so overheated. We need to ground them, make them more realistic. Because if we don't do this, the result can be very dramatic," warns Chunikhina.
According to her, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who does not seek Putin's approval and is strong in this, has another weakness: he is very dependent on whether the voter, the public approves of him. He is incapable of being completely open with citizens. But the time for frank conversation has long come:
"I hope that this time, when the stakes are so high, Zelenskyy will still find in himself the strength and words to speak with society as an adult — with adults. To tell people the bitter truth. The way he speaks to our Western partners, counting on their support.
He should say, in particular, that it's not worth expecting the end of the war after these negotiations. But if there is one chance out of a hundred to use these negotiations to achieve any positive — release of prisoners, return of abducted children, etc. — then it must be used. That's all he has to say."