Five years of President Zelenskyy. From naive promises to difficult decisions in a country at war

President Zelenskyy's five-year term is now coming to an end, having been extended indefinitely due to Russia's full-scale aggression. It is impossible to hold presidential elections under martial law.

Nevertheless, it is still important to assess how Volodymyr Zelenskyy has performed during this term, what promises he has kept, what has remained on the pages of his election program, and how external circumstances have affected his words and actions.

"Just stop shooting"

Many of Zelenskyy's program points have indeed been implemented, though not always fully. For example, it was during these five years that the laws on grass-roots democracy, the lifting of parliamentary immunity, the impeachment of the president, and the opening of the land market became a reality. Although some experts believe that the effectiveness of these mechanisms is debatable, formally, these points of the election program have been fulfilled.

The editor-in-chief of the Chesno election watchdog project, Oleksandr Salizhenko, points out that perhaps the most successful reform of the president's team is the in-depth digitalization of public services.

When people talked about e-democracy and e-governance in 2019, it seemed a bit unrealistic. But now we are used to the fact that there is Diia and other services at the state level. Back then, when it first appeared, there was skepticism... In my opinion, this is one of the really significant achievements.Oleksandr Salizhenko, editor-in-chief of Chesno

Another positive development is that his administration managed to put an end to "button-pushing" (piano voting). At first, the government offered the presidential political party Servant of the People to sign a memorandum promising that its MPs would resign in case of ghost voting. It didn't work – in September 2019, Serhiy Lytvynenko and Olena Kopanchuk, members of the single-party majority parliament, were caught "button-pushing". Instead of resigning their mandates, they only publicly apologized and promised to donate a month's salary to charity. When the first measure didn't make any difference, a technical solution helped – the introduction of a touch button for personal voting.

Watching Zelenskyy's inaugural speech, we note the request not to hang his portraits in the offices. Then the head of state said, "The president is not an icon." Instead, he suggested that officials hang photos of their children so that "before every decision, they look them in the eye." Well, it seems that at least the officials listened to the first point: there is no portrait of the head of state in the photos and videos from politicians' offices.

But there are also plenty of failures: Zelenskyy's ideas to introduce an economic passport for Ukrainians, to move to insurance medicine, and to replace the income tax with a tax on withdrawn capital have not gone beyond Zelenskyy's "Ukraine of Dreams." Also, Ukraine has not yet introduced mandatory free medical examinations. In addition, the current president initially wanted to prevent corruption suspects from being released on bail.

It seems to me that at first Zelenskyy had a number of somewhat naive ideas. But later, everything changed. Especially when the "turbo regime" – voting for presidential initiatives at an incredibly fast pace – ended.Oleksandr Salizhenko, editor-in-chief of Chesno

Oleksiy Haran, a professor of political science at the Kyiv-Mohyla Academy, suggests that when Volodymyr Zelenskyy was running for president, he did not understand what politics was at all. His position was extremely populist: promises "for all the good things, against all the bad things" and phrases like "just stop shooting." Haran recalls a billboard with the words "The end of the era of poverty on April 21, 2019" – although it was clear even then that this was impossible to achieve.

It is difficult to evaluate a number of other plans from Zelenskyy's program, because there seem to be positive examples, but there are also plenty of negative ones. In particular, it concerns "real terms for corrupt officials" and "new roads".

As for the former, it is not within the competence of the head of state to influence law enforcement agencies. The president himself soon realized this. His communication on the topic of "imprisonment" became less harsh after a while, although the number of anti-graft proceedings did increase. The number of new roads has also increased, which can be considered an advantage. However, Oleksiy Haran notes that there is a disadvantage here as well: the funds were spent on the "Big Construction" before Russia's invasion, but could have been spent on the army and preparing the country for a full-scale war.

"For the next five years, I will do everything so that you, Ukrainians, do not cry"

"We imagine [the future - ed.] in the same way: it is a successful and prosperous country where there is no war; a country that has returned its people and its territories. Where it doesn't matter what the street is called, because it is lighted and paved. Where it doesn't matter near which monument you are waiting for the girl you are in love with," Volodymyr Zelenskyy shared his vision of Ukraine in his New Year's greetings before the start of 2020. This phrase, according to Oleksiy Haran, demonstrates that the president did not yet understand the processes of state-building.

The beginning of Zelenskyy's activities as head of state is remembered in the format "Ukraine in 'turbo regime". The single-party majority in parliament, after the snap general election called by the president, initially passed law after law. At the time, it seemed that MPs studied the documents extremely superficially because they simply did not have time for it. But it was during that period that they passed some of the laws that Zelenskyy promised Ukrainians when he came to power.

In particular, we are talking about open lists in the elections to the legislature. Now Ukrainians will not just vote for a party, but also for a specific candidate from it. This was a long-standing promise of almost all democratic political forces in Ukraine. It is worth noting that this law was adopted by the old convocation of the parliament, which President Zelenskyy dissolved to bring his Servant of the People to the Verkhovna Rada.

At the beginning of his term, Zelenskyy did not imitate the image of a person who is well-versed in political processes. Instead, he constantly repeated (and is repeating now) that he has a reliable team of "young and progressive professionals" around him to help him with this. But even here, there were scandals.

We can see who was elected on the Servant of the People lists. There were some decent patriotic professionals, but there were also people who were, let's say, very odious. I'm not talking about the constant criticism of those who worked and still work in his office. Oleh Tatarov, for example.Oleksiy Haran, professor of political science at the Kyiv-Mohyla Academy

Experience shows how easy it is for the president to "let go" of his team members for any deviation from his line. For example, many times, high-ranking officials have learned about their dismissal suddenly – from media reports, not from the head of state. Because of this, Zelenskyy has been criticized for his lack of communication, both with politicians and the public.

Political analyst Oleksiy Haran cites the example of Valerii Zaluzhnyi's dismissal as commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces: "Perhaps Zelenskyy was right that it had to be done. We don't have all the information. But the way it was communicated to the public was wrong, given the trust that Zaluzhnyi had. They had to think about when and how to do it, and most importantly, to explain it, to give some logical arguments." The professor of the Kyiv-Mohyla Academy is convinced that this is why the political approval of the head of state and the level of trust in the government in general began to decline.

"We must pay tribute to the fact that Zelenskyy's and the Servant of the People's teams recognize the mistakes they made," Salizhenko said. The editor-in-chief of Chesno recalls how the single-party majority and the head of the Medical Committee, Mykhailo Radutsky, used to criticize Ulana Suprun's healthcare reform in unison. Recently, Radutsky admitted that he was wrong. Now he agrees that it was Minister Suprun's reform that probably allowed Ukraine to get through the coronavirus pandemic quite well compared to other countries.

"Leaders from abroad perceived me as an enemy at first"

"I would like our team to go down in history. I would like everyone to respect us," Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in his famous "monologue at Tesla" in June 2019. Well, he succeeded.

According to Oleksandr Salizhenko, one of Zelenskyy's strongest advantages is his foreign policy.

No matter what anyone says, the level of support we have from the world now is unprecedented. Of course, there are a number of problems; no one denies them. But still, if you look at the level of relations with international partners in the past and now, there has been a dramatic change.Oleksandr Salizhenko, editor-in-chief of Chesno

It was the trust of partners that allowed Ukraine to quickly receive much-needed support at the beginning of the full-scale invasion. Experts agree that Volodymyr Zelenskyy himself, his team, and the government did the right thing at the time. According to Oleksiy Haran, the single-party majority reached a certain consensus with the opposition, so the parliament promptly voted to impose martial law and grant additional powers to the president.

The West even began to admire it: "Oh, how lucky Ukraine is with Zelenskyy!" Because he did not run away like the Afghan president. And we now know that Western powers did offer Zelenskyy to go abroad, but he did not go for it... I believe that the Ukrainian president behaved as a Ukrainian president should have behaved. He relied on the will and sacrifice of the Ukrainian people. Oleksiy Haran, professor of political science at the Kyiv-Mohyla Academy

The country withstood Russia's onslaught at the beginning of the full-scale invasion, and later moved to counteroffensive actions. This allowed the liberation of part of the occupied territories, including the regional center of Kherson.

Back then, at the end of February 2022, 91% of Ukrainians supported President Zelenskyy's actions, according to a poll conducted by the Rating Group. Sociologists also recorded positive sentiments about the head of state in 2023, when society expected Ukraine's offensive and even began to hope for the return of all territories. But this did not happen.

"We must win peace for Ukraine"

"If we fall apart – on the outside, with our partners, and, God forbid, on the inside – it will be our weakest moment. So far, this has not happened," Volodymyr Zelenskyy said during his last press conference in February 2024.

The latest polls show that 22% of Ukrainians fully approve of the president's actions, while another 41% said they rather approve than disapprove. Although these figures are far from the over 90% support in 2022, Oleksiy Haran believes that this is still a good result for a country in the third year of a full-scale war.

According to the political scientist, critical attitudes toward the head of state can be explained, among other things, by non-transparent decisions of the Presidential Office and the concentration of power in the hands of his chief-of-staff, Andriy Yermak. And also by unreasonable promises to "end the war soon".

Everyone wanted 2023 to be a decisive year; for us to conduct another counteroffensive operation and liberate Ukraine. Unfortunately, the authorities also made such sky-high promises... We objectively did not have the appropriate weapons for this. This has certainly led to a change in the mood of Ukrainians and a drop in Zelenskyy's popularity.Oleksiy Haran, professor of political science at the Kyiv-Mohyla Academy

Oleksiy Haran believes that it is obvious that there were not enough available forces for a complete de-occupation. Therefore, the government, on the contrary, should have prepared society for the fact that the war could be long, and even then launched a mobilization campaign, prepared legislative changes, and sought new means of communication with society.

Today's "turbo regime" of mobilization, including the "towing" of conscripts, not always fair military medical commissions, and the absence of demobilization in the third year of the war, is hitting Zelenskyy's ratings even harder.

But at the same time, society is convinced that presidential elections should not be held during the war. According to a poll conducted in February of this year, 49% of citizens definitely do not support the idea of holding presidential elections in Ukraine right now; another 18% said they rather do not support it. There is a general perception in society that elections in a time of war will weaken the country and are generally unrealistic due to the complexity of the process.

However, the share of those who do support holding elections is gradually increasing. According to Oleksiy Haran, this is due to the fact that Ukrainians are now more critical of the current government than in the first years of the all-out war when the level of trust in Zelenskyy and his team reached sky-high levels.

Elections should be recognized not only at home but also abroad. Because if other countries do not recognize such elections as legitimate, then we will have even bigger problems.Oleksandr Salizhenko, editor-in-chief of Chesno

"We should not forget that officially there are about 1.1 million people in the Defense Forces alone, and several million more abroad. How can we give people the opportunity to vote? This should be the only solution that will suit everyone. Unfortunately, I think there is no such solution until martial law is lifted," Oleksandr Salizhenko concludes.