The occupiers blew up the dam of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant. What is known?

What happened?

On the night of June 6, Russian occupation forces blew up the dam of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant. As a result, evacuation of the population from dangerous places has begun in Kherson Oblast, the South Operational Command reported. The scale of the damage, the speed and volume of water, and the likely areas of flooding are being clarified. All services are working. The situation is being monitored.

Later, it became known that the Kazkova Dibrova amusement park in Nova Kakhovka, which houses the zoo, was flooded, the local publication MOST reported. It is reported that the fate of the animals and birds is still unknown.

According to this media outlet, residents claim that the occupation authorities are not responding to the situation. Several animals have also been reported dead as a result of the flooding.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wrote that by destroying the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant dam, the Russian occupiers only confirm for the whole world that “they must be expelled from every corner of Ukrainian land”.

“Not a single meter should be left to them, because they use every meter for terror. Only Ukraine's victory will return security. And this victory will come. The terrorists will not be able to stop Ukraine with water, missiles, or anything else,” the Head of State assured.

What are the consequences?

The hydroelectric power plant was completely destroyed by an explosion inside the engine room. The Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant is beyond repair, Ukrhydroenergo said. According to a preliminary forecast, the reservoir is expected to be drained within the next four days.

“Ukrhydroenergo is currently analyzing the situation, our experts are working to clarify the extent of the damage, the speed, and the volume of water. The information will be updated,” they added.

Currently, sanitary and epidemiological services are working in Kherson Oblast, as the water carries dirt that can affect people. All hospitals are on standby today, said Oleksandr Samoilenko, chairman of the regional council, during the telethon.

What else is dangerous?

The head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Andriy Yermak, called the dam's blowing up another Russian war crime. According to him, this is ecocide.

“The Russians will be responsible for the possible deprivation of drinking water for people in the south of Kherson Oblast and Crimea, the possible destruction of some settlements and the biosphere,” he emphasized.

Later, he added that the explosion of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant by the Russians is also a blow to global food security, which Russia wants to undermine. He said that this disaster would affect the irrigation system in southern Ukraine.

The head of the Nikopol district military administration (Dnipropetrovsk Oblast), Yevhen Yevtushenko, noted that the water in the Kakhovka reservoir is falling rapidly, by about 15 centimeters per hour.

Andrian Prokip, an energy expert at the Ukrainian Institute for the Future, told us that the hydroelectric power plant explosion will not have any significant consequences for the power system. However, we should expect consequences from flooding.

“As of now, it is not clear how deeply this dam is destroyed, because this will determine the amount of flooding. It is not critical for the power system. The key thing to be afraid of is the consequences of flooding the territory,” he emphasized.

Flooding threatens up to 80 settlements due to the occupiers' undermining of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant dam, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said.

What's going on with ZNPP?

Yermak pointed out that the occupiers' actions also threatened the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Later, this information was confirmed by Energoatom, but they clarified that the situation was under control.

The water from the Kakhovka reservoir is needed for the plant to receive water for turbine condensers and ZNPP safety systems. The station's cooling pond is now full: as of 8:00 am, the water level is 16.6 meters, which is sufficient for the station's needs.

Ukrainian personnel is currently monitoring all indicators. Energoatom is monitoring the actions of the occupiers at ZNPP together with other international organizations present at the plant, including the IAEA. If the situation changes, Energoatom promises to promptly report on the state of affairs.

The IAEA wrote that they are aware of reports of damage to the Kakhovka dam in Ukraine. They claim that their experts at Zaporizhzhia NPP are closely monitoring the situation. There is no immediate risk to nuclear safety at the plant.

The Ukrainian authorities are currently assessing the environmental impact and threat to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Due to the lack of access to the plant, such an assessment is difficult, explained Denys Shmyhal.

Where is the danger greatest?

Units of the National Police and the regional department of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine are working to warn and evacuate civilians from potential flood zones, the Ministry of Internal Affairs said.

The area in question is the right bank of the Dnipro River, namely the villages of Mykolaivka, Olhivka, Lovo, Tiahynka, Poniativka, Ivanivka, Tokarivka, Prydniprovske, Sadove, and part of the city of Kherson – Korabel Island.

In total, about 16,000 people in Kherson Oblast found themselves in the critical zone of the right bank of the Dnipro River, said Oleksandr Prokudin, head of the Regional Military Administration, on the air of the telethon.

The Korabel neighborhood in Kherson was cut off for security reasons. Gas supply will also be cut off in a few hours, the city military administration said.

Critically high water levels due to the explosion of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant are expected at about 11 o'clock, the water has already passed halfway, said Oleksandr Samoilenko.

According to him, Tiahynka, which is located halfway to Kherson, is partially flooded. The Ostriv neighborhood is expected to be partially flooded.

According to the head of the regional military administration, Oleksandr Prokudin, residents of dangerous areas have begun evacuating.

“All services are working. The State Emergency Service, the police, the military – everyone is here. Please gather your documents and essentials and wait for the evacuation buses,” he urged.

What should people do?

According to the Interior Ministry, the water level is rising. The ministry and the Pivden Operation Command emphasize that everyone in the danger zone should:

•       turn off all electrical appliances and gas stoves;

•       cut off all utility lines in the apartment;

•       take documents and necessities, warm clothes, food, and drinking water;

•       take care of family and pets;

•       follow the instructions of rescuers and police officers.

The evacuation of residents of dangerous areas by bus to Kherson, then to Mykolaiv, and from there to Khmelnytskyi, Odesa, Kropyvnytskyi, Kyiv, and other cities is underway. Also, at noon, an evacuation train to Mykolaiv will depart from Kherson railway station.

What are the authorities doing?

First, it is evacuating the population. Also, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy decided to hold an emergency meeting of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine due to the dam explosion, according to NSDC Secretary Oleksiy Danilov.

What else can happen?

In October 2022, technology researcher and writer Lars Wilderäng presented a simulation of the worst-case scenarios in the event of Russia's destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant dam at Cornucopia News Archives, Texty.org.ua reported. These are approximate simulations that should not be taken as reality.

Lars Wilderäng believed that the greatest flooding would occur on the left (southeastern) bank of the Dnipro. A 4-5-meter-high wave would reach Antonivka Bridge east of Kherson in 19 hours, after which the Inhulets River would begin to overflow, and in 4-5 days the Bug River would overflow to Mykolaiv.

The worst-case scenario here is when all the locks are blown up, i.e. 200 meters. The entire dam is 3,500 meters long, and if 400 meters or 1,800 meters are demolished, the modeled time for the water to reach Kherson will be almost halved. There will be more flooding.

Another modeling of the worst-case scenario of a dam breach was performed by the Swedish hydrological engineering company Dämningsverket. Their assumptions included that the water level in the dam was 13 meters above the level of the Dnipro downstream and that the dam breach would expand to a width of approximately 200 meters within an hour.

When the wave reaches Antonivka Bridge, it will be 4 to 5 meters high. The wave will be higher upstream, and the wave speed and height will be greater closer to the dam. In this model, the wave will reach Kherson in about 19 hours, as the water spreads over the lowlands instead of just rushing forward.

The Inhulets River will flood. In 4-5 days, the rising water will cause the Bug River to overflow, up to Mykolaiv. The isthmus at the end of the bay outside the Dnipro delta will be almost completely flooded, although this will begin about 50 hours after the dam break.

The peak of the simulated flow will reach 14 thousand cubic meters of water per second, which is comparable to the average flow of Niagara Falls of 2,400 m3/s and the average flow of the Dnipro River of 1,670 m3/s. Over time, the flow will decrease.

Is blowing up a hydroelectric power plant a crime?

That's right. Dams like the one on the Dnipro in Nova Kakhovka are protected by wartime laws and the Geneva Convention. Destroying it would be considered a weapon of mass destruction and an indiscriminate war crime, technology researcher Lars Wilderäng wrote in October.

According to the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, the dam's explosion is an obvious terrorist attack and war crime that will be used as evidence in an international tribunal.

“This is an undeniable act of ecocide and an obvious war crime, the impact of which goes far beyond Ukraine and affects the ecosystem of the entire Black Sea region,” they emphasized.

This crime also increases the threat of a nuclear disaster, as the filling of the cooling ponds at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant depends on the water level in the Dnipro River.

Why did the Russians blow up a hydroelectric power plant?

Nataliia Humeniuk, head of the Joint Coordination Press Center of the Southern Ukrainian Defense Forces, said during the telethon that the Russians blew up part of the structure and are using the man-made blackmail card to put pressure on the Defense Forces.

“[They did this to] put pressure on Ukraine as a whole, not having the strength to wait any longer to see where the counteroffensive would come from. Having realized what they have done, they are now evacuating themselves, because the left bank will suffer first, as it is geographically lower, and, accordingly, the first part of the water, the main flooding will be there,” she explained.

What do the occupiers say about all this?

They, of course, blame the accident at the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant on the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The so-called mayor, Vladimir Leontyev, said that the plant was out of commission because of alleged shelling by Ukrainian troops, as quoted by Russia's TASS. He called it a “serious act of terrorism”.

Nataliia Humeniuk confirmed that it was not a missile attack: “Even from the type of damage, from the appearance of the dam itself, it is clear that the explosion came from the inside.”

Did the authorities know about the possible explosion?

The Main Intelligence Directorate reported that the Russians carried out major mining operations at the hydroelectric power plant immediately after its seizure. In April 2022, the Russians additionally mined the locks and supports. They installed tented trucks with explosives on the dam itself.

In October 2022, Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated in an address to the European Council that the Russians had mined the dam and units of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant. At the time, he said that if the occupiers blew up the dam, more than 80 settlements, including Kherson, would be in the zone of rapid flooding, and hundreds of thousands of people could be affected.

“The devastating environmental, humanitarian, and technogenic consequences of this Russian terrorist attack alone may be called a historical catastrophe,” thehead of state emphasized.

Already at that time, according to Zelenskyy, Russia had prepared everything to blow up the dam. In particular, Ukrainian workers were expelled from the Kakhovka HPP: it was controlled by the Russians.

The president then asked to organize an international observation mission to the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant, return Ukrainian personnel there and ensure that the units and dam were cleared of mines. However, this did not happen.