Ukrainian intelligence warns of Russia's plans to stage major false flag operation with civilian casualties
The Kremlin is conducting a comprehensive special operation to disrupt "peace negotiations," including preparing a large-scale provocation with human casualties, Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service said in a statement.
After statements about an alleged Ukrainian attack on Russian leader Vladimir Putin's residence, intelligence is detecting the Kremlin's spread of "new fabricated information pretexts to prepare Russian and foreign audiences for further escalation."
"We predict with high probability a shift from manipulative influence to an armed provocation by Russian special services with significant human casualties. Expected timing — ahead of or during Orthodox Christmas celebrations. The provocation site could be a religious building or other object with high symbolic value in Russia or temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories," the FIS said.
According to intelligence, to fabricate evidence of Ukrainian involvement, debris from Western-made strike UAVs will be delivered to the provocation site from the line of contact.
"Exploiting fear and committing terrorist acts with human casualties under a 'false flag' fully matches the style of Russian special services. Putin's regime has repeatedly used this tactic inside Russia, and now the same model is being exported abroad, indirectly confirmed by public statements from senior Russian officials," the FIS said.
Background
The day before, a Russian-installed governor in occupied Kherson Oblast, Vladimir Saldo, accused Ukrainian troops of attacking a cafe and hotel on the Black Sea coast in the resort village of Khorly.
Saldo claimed 24 dead (including a child) and over 50 injured. According to him, the strike hit a place where civilians were celebrating New Year's. Social media spread information that collaborators and Russian soldiers were at the cafe.
Russia's Foreign Ministry claimed the "attack was planned in advance" and "drones deliberately struck a civilian gathering during celebrations."
Ukrainian General Staff spokesman Dmytro Lykhoviy stressed that Ukraine's Defense Forces adhere to International Humanitarian Law norms and strike only Russian military targets.
"Russian propagandists and military-political leadership have repeatedly resorted to disinformation and fake statements, including to influence Ukraine's international partners and the course of peace negotiations," he said.