What the US midterms could mean for Ukraine - and Trump's Russia policy

The war in Iran, rising prices and dissatisfaction with the economy dominate American voters' concerns. Russia's war against Ukraine, while still a national security issue, has slipped down the electoral agenda.

"The war in Ukraine has been eclipsed by the war in Iran as a voting issue going into these elections," American historian Allan Lichtman told hromadske.

Yet the next Congress could have considerable influence over Washington's relationship with Kyiv and Moscow. Democrats are hoping to regain control of the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate, potentially setting up a confrontation with the White House over foreign policy and federal spending.

Hromadske spoke with Lichtman, political analyst and former congressional national security adviser Eric Ham, and Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal about the possible outcomes - and what they could mean for Ukraine.

Three scenarios for Washington - and Kyiv

Republicans currently control the White House and both chambers of Congress. Whether they retain that advantage will shape the final two years of Trump's presidency.

If Republicans keep both chambers, Trump would retain a comparatively favorable political environment for pursuing his agenda.

Ham expects the president to seek closer relations with Moscow and increase pressure on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to end the war on terms favorable to Russia.

"I think he will get even closer to Russia," Ham told hromadske.

If Democrats win the House but Republicans retain the Senate, the opposition would gain greater leverage over federal spending and congressional investigations. However, Republicans would continue to control Senate confirmation votes and could block legislation passed by the House.

If Democrats win both chambers, they would have more opportunities to challenge the administration through legislation, spending decisions, oversight and control of senior appointments.

"If Democrats win back one or both chambers, that does provide some level of a check on the White House," Ham said.

Congress could also revisit powers it previously delegated to the executive branch, including certain trade authorities.

"Much of the President's trade authority does not come from the Constitution. It comes from laws that Congress have enacted," Ham explained.

According to Ham, Democratic lawmakers have discussed reclaiming some of those powers and withholding funding for aspects of the war in Iran.

Nevertheless, control of Congress would not give Democrats direct control over US foreign policy. Trump would retain substantial executive authority and the power to veto legislation, which requires two-thirds majorities in both chambers to override.

Reuters reported on November 1 that senior White House officials have been developing ways to pursue Trump's agenda without new congressional legislation in the event of a Democratic victory.

How likely is a Democratic victory?

The president's party has historically tended to lose seats in midterm elections, and recent polling suggests Republicans face a difficult electoral environment.

An October Pew Research Center survey found that 77% of Americans were dissatisfied with the way things were going in the country.

Lichtman said inflation, the sluggish economy and concerns about democracy were weighing on voters.

"At the top of the list is inflation," he told hromadske, adding that rising fuel prices and the war in Iran had intensified public dissatisfaction.

He estimated the probability of Democrats winning the House at more than 90%, while putting their chances of gaining control of the Senate at approximately two-thirds.

Those are Lichtman's own assessments, not a consensus forecast. The Senate remains a more difficult target for Democrats because of the seats they would need to gain in Republican-leaning states.

The Russia sanctions fight is already underway

For Ukraine, one of the clearest examples of Congress's potential influence is the growing dispute over the Trump administration's approach to Russian energy sanctions.

Opposition to easing pressure on Moscow has come from lawmakers in both parties.

On October 11, Republican Representative Brian Fitzpatrick introduced bipartisan legislation intended to prevent Trump from unilaterally lifting sanctions on Russian oil.

Two days later, a bipartisan group of senators urged the administration to reverse a Russian diesel arrangement and maintain pressure on Moscow.

Blumenthal, a Democratic senator involved in the effort, told hromadske that the arrangement would provide little benefit to American consumers while increasing Russia's revenue.

"This diesel deal produces almost no additional fuel for the United States. It's negligible. It's a pittance," he said.

"But also lifting the sanctions means that Putin can sell diesel and other fuel on the world market and thereby funnel money into his war machine."

Blumenthal said lawmakers could pursue additional legislation and coordinate further bipartisan pressure on the administration.

"We also can do other actions that show Republicans and Democrats are united, such as writing letters," he said.

He argued that improved relations between Washington and Kyiv would be more likely if Democrats won the midterms.

"What's really necessary for improved relations is for Democrats to win the elections in November," Blumenthal said.

That is the position of a Democratic senator who has actively supported Ukraine and advocated tougher sanctions against Russia. A Democratic victory would not, by itself, guarantee a change in the White House's policies.

Could Ukraine receive more US assistance?

Ham believes a Democratic-controlled Congress, working with some Republicans, could seek to allocate more funding for Ukraine's defense.

But he warned that the White House would remain a major obstacle to any such effort.

"I suspect even if Democrats win and win by a very large margin, it's going to be a massive, massive battle between the Democratic-controlled Congress and the Republican-controlled White House," he said.

Blumenthal also emphasized that support for Ukraine extends across party lines, citing bipartisan backing for Russia sanctions legislation.

At the same time, the president would retain considerable authority over how foreign policy is conducted and how some forms of assistance are implemented.

The election could therefore strengthen Ukraine's supporters in Congress without immediately changing the administration's approach.

What happens after November 3?

The immediate question is who controls the House and Senate. The longer-term question is how far the next Congress will be prepared - and able - to challenge Trump's decisions on Russia, sanctions and military support for Ukraine.

A Democratic victory could mean greater scrutiny of the White House, stronger legislative efforts to restrict sanctions relief and renewed attempts to fund Ukrainian defense.

But any such measures could face presidential resistance, legislative obstacles and disputes over executive authority.

For Ukraine, the stakes extend beyond the election results themselves. What matters is whether the new balance of power in Washington translates into concrete decisions - and whether those decisions can change the course of US policy toward Kyiv and Moscow.