Democrats have over 90% chance of winning the House, Allan Lichtman tells hromadske

Democrats have more than a 90% chance of winning control of the US House of Representatives in the November 2026 midterm elections, while their chances of taking the Senate are approximately two in three, American political historian Allan Lichtman told hromadske.

Lichtman, a professor at American University in Washington, DC, is best known for developing the 13 Keys to the White House, a system designed to forecast US presidential election outcomes based on historical patterns rather than conventional polling.

His latest assessment comes as President Donald Trump faces widespread public dissatisfaction over rising prices, the economy and the US war with Iran.

Democrats favored to win the House, Senate remains harder

"I think it's almost certain, 90 percent plus, that Democrats will take over the House," Lichtman said.

He was more cautious about the Senate, where Democrats face a more difficult electoral map.

"The Senate is more difficult because Democrats have to win quite a few seats, four or five seats in deep red states. That's certainly possible, but it's difficult," he explained.

Lichtman estimated the probability of Democrats winning the Senate at about two-thirds.

These figures represent his assessment of the political outlook, rather than a formal forecast produced by his presidential election model.

The historian pointed to Trump's low approval ratings as a major obstacle for Republicans.

According to Lichtman, approximately 70% of Americans believe the country is heading in the wrong direction, while Trump's approval rating has fallen into the low-to-mid-30% range.

He said that, historically, presidents with similarly low approval ratings have seen their parties lose an average of 40 House seats and six Senate seats in midterm elections.

"I'm not predicting that because that's an average," he cautioned, arguing instead that the historical comparison illustrates the difficulties facing Republicans.

Inflation, the economy and democracy dominate voters' concerns

Lichtman identified inflation as the leading issue for American voters, followed by broader economic concerns.

"At the top of the list is inflation," he said, arguing that Trump's tariffs and the war with Iran have contributed to rising prices.

He pointed to higher gasoline prices, sluggish job creation and declining real wages as sources of public frustration.

But he also identified a change in voter priorities compared with the 2024 presidential election: concerns about the state of American democracy have become more prominent.

In 2024, Lichtman said, democracy and political corruption were not among voters' principal concerns. He believes the Trump administration's actions have since pushed those issues higher on the political agenda.

The historian sharply criticized what he described as the administration's use of presidential power against political opponents and raised allegations about conflicts of interest involving Trump and his family.

These were Lichtman's assessments of the administration, not findings independently established in the interview.

Iran war has overshadowed Ukraine as an election issue

For Ukraine, one of the most consequential changes in American politics is the relative decline of Russia's invasion as a domestic election issue.

"The war in Ukraine has been eclipsed by the war in Iran as a voting issue going into these elections," Lichtman told hromadske.

He rejected attempts by Trump and his allies to blame the war in Ukraine for the recent rise in US consumer prices.

"Trump and his allies have tried to blame the war in Ukraine for higher prices, but the American people aren't buying it," he said.

Lichtman argued that the timing of the price increases points instead to the economic consequences of the US war with Iran.

He also described the Iran war as exceptionally unpopular, estimating that roughly two-thirds or more of Americans oppose it.

"Typically when America goes to war, at least early on, you'll have a rally around the flag effect," he said. "That never happened in this war."

Those claims about public opinion and the causes of inflation reflect Lichtman's analysis; he did not cite specific polls or economic studies during the interview.

Despite Ukraine's reduced prominence in US electoral politics, Lichtman stressed that Russia's war remains critically important.

He described Russian President Vladimir Putin as hostile to democracy and argued that Moscow seeks to restore Russian dominance over territories once controlled by the Soviet Union.

Lichtman also criticized Trump's approach toward Putin, questioning why the US president has repeatedly appeared reluctant to confront the Russian leader.

Why the famous '13 Keys' failed in 2024

Lichtman's reputation rests largely on his 13 Keys to the White House, a forecasting method he developed with geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok.

Unlike election forecasts based primarily on polling, the system evaluates the political and governing circumstances of the incumbent party through 13 historical indicators.

Lichtman has used the method to make presidential election predictions for decades. However, his prediction that Democratic nominee Kamala Harris would win in 2024 proved incorrect when Trump won the election.

Asked by hromadske why his system failed, Lichtman offered two explanations.

The first was the unprecedented political pressure that led President Joe Biden to withdraw from the presidential race shortly before the election, allowing Harris to replace him as the Democratic nominee.

"Never before, and I've studied American history from the founding to the present, have political leaders so openly and viciously trashed their sitting president and their almost unanimously elected nominee, and then forced him not to run right before the election," he said.

"That is without precedent."

His second explanation was the scale of misinformation circulating during the campaign.

"I call it the misinformation election," Lichtman said.

He argued that his forecasting system assumes voters make broadly rational judgments about whether the incumbent administration deserves another four years in office.

"But if they're making decisions based on misinformation, then the system doesn't work," he said.

Lichtman singled out billionaire Elon Musk, the owner of X, accusing him of using his financial resources and social media platform to spread misleading political messages.

As an example, he cited the gap between Americans' views on abortion rights and their preferences for the presidential candidates on that issue.

In Lichtman's interpretation, misinformation helped narrow what he believed should have been a much larger electoral advantage for Harris.

His explanation remains contested in principle: the interview did not establish that misinformation or Biden's withdrawal caused the forecasting model to fail. Rather, these are the reasons Lichtman himself offers for his incorrect prediction.

"My system is based on history, and historical patterns can be broken," he said.

No prediction yet for the 2028 presidential election

Although Lichtman was willing to offer probabilities for the November midterms, he declined to predict the outcome of the next presidential election.

"I don't have a call yet. It's much too early to make that call," he told hromadske.

"There's so much that can happen over the next two years. So check in with me later and I'll give you my prediction."

At the end of the interview, Lichtman also offered a personal message to Ukrainians.

"My heart is with the Ukrainians," he said.