Europe's populist shake-up: Will far-right gains undermine EU support for Ukraine?
The elections to the European Parliament brought many surprises, and some of them are frightening. In particular, far-right forces, which are often accused of xenophobia and sympathy for Moscow, showed decent results in several EU countries. However, the parties in charge of local parliaments lost the elections. Such consequences of the vote have even led to the reformatting of governments in France and Belgium.
The European Parliament elections have concluded, and as the political landscape of Europe shifts, questions arise about the implications for Ukraine. In this article, hromadske explores the potential consequences for Ukraine and the future of its relations with the European Union.
Who will form a coalition in the European Parliament?
The European Parliament is the main legislative body of the European Union, which is formed as a result of direct national elections in all 27 EU countries. Elections to the European Parliament are held on a proportional basis every five years. Lawmakers from the political forces of each country are elected to the joint parliament.
Once in the European Parliament, elected representatives of national parties unite in alliances under the auspices of pan-European groups. Or they can remain independent representatives of national political parties.
This election campaign is the first since Britain's exit from the EU in 2020, which has reduced the total number of MEPs. In the elections that took place on June 6-9, 2024, EU citizens elected 720 parliamentarians. The newly formed coalition will now appoint the heads of the key supranational institutions of the Union: the European Parliament, the European Commission, the European Council, and the European External Action Service.
As of June 11, the vote count was officially completed in 12 of the 27 EU countries. However, we can already talk about the consequences as usually in democratic countries, election results almost completely coincide with exit polls, so the full picture of the new political portrait of Europe is quite clear.
Most seats in the European Parliament were won by representatives of conservative forces. These are the European People's Party (EPP), led by the current President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen; the center-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats; and the Renew Europe group.
The same three political parties won the European Parliament elections five years ago. Back then, they formed a coalition that, after the full-scale invasion, became a reliable ally of Ukraine on the most fundamental issues, such as European integration and sanctions against Russia.
At the same time, the position of far-right parties has somewhat strengthened, advocating populist slogans of Euroscepticism and tough anti-immigration policies. Nevertheless, the far-right camp lacks unity on many issues, from its position on the Russo-Ukrainian war to its views on key issues of EU domestic policy.
The renewed European Parliament will have at least two powerful far-right factions: the European Conservatives and Reformers Group and the Identity and Democracy Group. The most influential member of the European Conservatives and Reformers group is the current Prime Minister of Italy and head of the Brothers of Italy party, Giorgia Meloni. She is known for her uncompromising pro-Ukrainian position. But the leader of the Identity and Democracy group is the odious French politician Marine Le Pen, who, on the contrary, has repeatedly demonstrated a tendency to work closely with Russia.
We should not forget about the "independent" far-right MPs from the German party Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the Fidesz party of the current Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Both national political parties regularly support pro-Russian initiatives and are consistent Eurosceptics – they oppose EU enlargement and, accordingly, Ukraine's accession to the Union.
In addition, the current elections were a disappointment for the “green” parties, whose central theme is the fight against negative climate change. Compared to the 2019 vote, the Greens lost 18 parliamentary seats.
Currently, the number of seats in the European Parliament is distributed among international associations as follows:
- The European People's Party - 186 MEPs (25.83%), +10 seats compared to the 2019 elections;
- Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats - 135 MEPs (18.75%), -4 seats;
- Renew Europe - 79 MEPs (10.97%), -23 seats;
- European Conservatives and Reformers - 73 MEPs (10.14%), +4 seats;
- Identity and Democracy - 58 MEPs (8.06%), +9 seats;
- The Greens - 53 MEPs (7.36%), -18 seats;
- The Left - 36 MEPs (5.0%), -1 seat;
- Non-factional - 100 MEPs (13.89%), +38 seats.
Thus, the same conservative forces have the highest chances of forming a governing coalition now as they did five years ago: The European People's Party, the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats, and Renew Europe. The so-called Center coalition already has 400 seats in the European Parliament. It is possible that the Greens will join this coalition.
361 votes are needed to elect the head of the European Commission. Negotiations on the formation of a coalition can last weeks, but the trajectory of these negotiations is already quite clear.
A delay in the coalition's renewal could lead to the issue of further appointments. For example, the main contender for the position of head of the European Commission will be the current president of this executive body, Ursula von der Leyen, known for her pro-Ukrainian stance. She has already officially announced her intention to run for a second term in a row. However, within the conservative camp, there are currently a fairly large number of opponents of her candidacy.
If an agreement is not reached, von der Leyen will have to withdraw her candidacy for the presidency of the European Commission in order to create a coalition of conservative forces. Such a scenario is quite possible, but so far no such statements have been made in public.
The triumph of the far right in France
The most unexpected result of the European Parliament elections was Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally's stunning victory in France. This political force beat the Renaissance, the ruling party of current President Emmanuel Macron. Le Pen's party received more than 30% of the vote, while Macron's party received 14.6%, almost half as much.
Therefore, the ardent Eurosceptics from the National Rally will receive 30 seats in the European Parliament, while the Renaissance Party will receive only 13. Moreover, President Macron unexpectedly responded to his opponents' landslide victory by announcing the dissolution of the local parliament and calling for new elections. The first round will be held on June 30, and the second on July 7 this year.
"I have decided to give you back the choice of your parliamentary future. This is a serious and difficult decision, but above all, it is an act of trust," Emmanuel Macron said on June 9.
In the winter, the independent think tank European Council on Foreign Relations warned that the upcoming parliamentary elections in European countries could strengthen the position of far-right parties. The "lurch to the right" has actually begun and will bring changes not only in France but also in a number of other EU countries. The far-right already has strong positions in France, the Netherlands, Austria, Hungary, and Italy. It can be argued that, following the European Parliament elections, Germany has also joined these countries.
Turbulence in Germany
As for Germany, the Social Democratic Party of the current Chancellor Olaf Scholz, which is in power there, suffered a painful defeat and took only third place. The Christian Democratic Union, of which Ursula von der Leyen is a member, scored a convincing victory. But the pro-Russian Alternative for Germany party unexpectedly took second place.
The Christian Democratic Union gained 30% of the vote and will receive 29 seats in the European Parliament. The Alternative for Germany party won 15.9% and 15 seats. In turn, only 14 MEPs will now represent the Social Democratic Party, which gained only 14.1%. This is the worst result for the Social Democrats in 70 years.
The pro-Ukrainian Green Party of current Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock also failed, finishing fourth with 11.9% of the vote. As a result, the Greens will get 12 seats in the European Parliament, a significant 9 seats less than in 2019.
Another piece of bad news for Ukraine is the strong result of the pro-Russian Alternative for Germany, which has seized regional leadership in the east of the country. The map of the electoral triumph of this far-right party almost completely coincides with the political map of the GDR, a puppet state that was in the orbit of Moscow's influence from the time of World War II until the reunification of Germany in 1990. The only exception was Berlin.
Unlike the French president, the German chancellor did not dissolve the parliament due to the loss of voter confidence. However, the rise of far-right populists is already outlining new contours of political life in Germany. The European Parliament elections demonstrated a significant drop in the rating of the ruling coalition, which portends a change of power in the upcoming parliamentary elections.
In Hungary, new faces are catching up with Orbán, and political competition is strong in Poland
As for Moscow's main sympathizers, the Hungarian far-right Fidesz party, the news is both good and bad. The party of longtime Prime Minister Viktor Orbán won again, garnering 44% of the vote, which translates into 10 parliamentary seats.
At the same time, the ruling party received significantly fewer votes than expected, and showed its worst result in 20 years. Orban's competitors, represented by Péter Magyar and his Tisza party, are already breathing down the neck of the Hungarian Putin sympathizer as they won 30% of the vote and will have seven representatives in the European Parliament.
The current prime minister, Viktor Orbán, blocks most European decisions in support of Ukraine. But his rival, Péter Magyar, has a clear pro-Ukrainian position – he supports Ukraine's integration into NATO and the EU and the provision of military and economic support to Kyiv. Tisza's strong performance could mean that Fidesz will face serious opposition in the next parliamentary elections.
In another neighboring country, Poland, there were no major surprises. The ruling party, the Civic Coalition of Prime Minister Donald Tusk, won the European Parliament elections. The pro-Ukrainian political force won 37.1% of the vote and will have 21 seats in the European Parliament. The Law and Justice party of President Andrzej Duda, which until recently was in power, also showed a close result, with 36.2% of the vote, giving it 20 seats in the legislature.
The ultra-right is strengthening its position
In Italy, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's ruling Brothers of Italy party won the election. The party will more than double its representation in the European Parliament – with 28.8% of the vote, it will receive 24 seats in the European Parliament, which is 14 more than the party had in 2019. Unlike most far-right forces in the EU, Meloni's party has a consistent pro-Ukrainian position, so its strengthening is unlikely to bring Kyiv anything bad.
The second place in Italy was taken by the center-left opposition Democratic Party, which received a significant 25.6% of the vote and 22 seats. Another far-right party, the opposition Five Star Movement, finished third, with 10% of the vote and 8 seats in the European Parliament. The pro-Russian politician Matteo Salvini's Lega party will have the same number of seats, having won the support of 9.6% of voters.
In Belgium, these elections were a real electoral shock for Prime Minister Alexander de Croo. His party, the Flemish Liberals and Democrats, suffered a crushing defeat, gaining only 5.8% of the vote, and now they will have only 1 seat in the European Parliament.
The radical change in voter preferences and lack of confidence in the current government forced the prime minister to resign. However, no political force in the country has a striking advantage. The far-right populist party Flemish Interest received the most votes, with 14.5% and 3 MEPs. Not far behind is the nationalist and conservative party New Flemish Alliance, with 14% and 3 MPs. Therefore, it is extremely difficult to predict the situation in the upcoming national elections.
Far-right populists also won in Austria. 25.4% and 6 seats in the European Parliament were won by Eurosceptics of the Freedom Party, a party that supports close cooperation with Russia. Their result this year was twice as high as in 2019.
The Austrian People's Party of the liberal conservatives finished a close second with 24.5% of the vote and 5 seats in the European Parliament.
Risks for Ukraine
The European Parliament elections demonstrated several trends that are gradually changing the political landscape of Europe. Obviously, voters' sympathy for far-right populists is growing. Especially in the largest European countries – Germany and France. Second, the popularity of political parties that support Ukraine is declining, and not only neutral but also openly pro-Russian parties are claiming their place.
For example, Marine Le Pen and her National Rally will now claim a majority in the French parliament. Le Pen, in particular, supports the thesis that supporting Ukraine could lead to World War III.
The politician has previously been accused of sympathizing with the Putin regime. She called Crimea a "legitimate part of Russia" and claimed that the annexed Ukrainian peninsula was a "free expression of will" of local residents.
Moreover, in 2014, Le Pen's party took out a €9 million loan for its political activities from a Russian bank. Commenting on the decision to take a loan from Russia, Le Pen said that there was nothing wrong with it, as she shared Putin's views on international politics.
Although Le Pen unexpectedly made an unequivocal statement in support of Ukraine in the spring of 2024, this did not prevent her from abstaining from voting in the parliament to ratify the bilateral security agreement between France and Ukraine.
"We owe the Ukrainian people our respect and support. By attacking Ukraine, Russia has provoked a war on the doorstep of the European Union," Le Pen said at the time.
This was only the second pro-Ukrainian statement by Le Pen in her political career. Immediately after the start of Russia's full-scale invasion, Le Pen asserted that she supported Ukraine's sovereignty and the Ukrainian people's aspirations to join NATO.
The situation is even more dangerous in Germany, where the far-right Alternative for Germany party has gained a solid result. This political force opposes the provision of military aid to Ukraine, accuses Olaf Scholz of "inciting war" and has even filed a lawsuit against the federal government demanding that it stop supplying weapons to Ukraine.
Last summer, the German newspaper Spiegel published a high-profile journalistic investigation that showed that Russian representatives were in contact with far-right politicians in Germany, including the AfD leadership. After analyzing the hacked email correspondence between Russian propagandist Vladimir Sergienko and representatives of the Alternative for Germany party, Spiegel journalists found that lawmakers from this political force repeatedly received texts of their speeches from Moscow in exchange for financial support.
Since Germany and France are the largest arms suppliers to Ukraine, the growing role of far-right pro-Russian parties in these countries could affect support for Ukraine in the future. Nevertheless, the European Parliament elections are unlikely to change the pro-Ukrainian stance of key EU institutions right now. However, the "lurch to the right" in a number of European countries does pose serious risks in the long run.