Russia's oil and gas tax revenue could rise 10% in October despite annual decline - Reuters

The projected increase comes as global oil prices have surged amid supply disruptions caused by the war in the Middle East. Higher energy prices could boost revenue for Russia, which relies on oil and gas taxes to help finance its war against Ukraine.

However, much of the expected increase from September reflects the timing of quarterly tax payments rather than changes in energy prices alone.

Reuters estimates that October oil and gas tax revenue will more than double September's level, largely because of quarterly payments under an additional profit-based tax on oil production.

Even excluding that tax, revenue is expected to exceed September's total by approximately 164 billion rubles, or 36%.

The benefit of higher oil prices is expected to be partly offset by lower production. Reuters estimates that Russian oil output fell 5% in the third quarter compared with the same period in 2025.

Despite the projected October increase, Russia's cumulative oil and gas tax revenue for January–October is expected to reach 6.45 trillion rubles, down 14% from the corresponding period last year.

Oil and gas taxes account for roughly one-fifth of Russia's federal budget revenue. The country's 2026 budget projects 8.918 trillion rubles in oil and gas income out of total revenue of 40.283 trillion rubles.

Reuters based its estimates on oil and gas production data, refinery throughput and supplies to domestic and international markets.