AfD wins Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania election as Merz's CDU falls below 5%

The AfD was projected to receive 38.3% of the vote, ahead of the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) at 35.4%. The result marks the first time in 28 years that the SPD has failed to finish first in the northeastern state.

The AfD more than doubled its share of the vote compared with the 2021 election, when it received 16.7%.

Despite finishing first, the AfD is unlikely to form a state government as Germany's other mainstream parties have maintained their refusal to enter coalitions with it.

The CDU was projected to receive just 4.9%, down from around 13% in 2021, putting the party at risk of being excluded from the state parliament altogether.

"It's a disaster," Merz said after the exit polls were released, according to Reuters. He nevertheless indicated that he intended to remain chancellor and continue pursuing his government's reform agenda.

The election gives the AfD its second first-place finish in a German state this month, following its strong showing in Saxony-Anhalt on Sept. 6.

Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania's SPD state premier, Manuela Schwesig, told Reuters that opposition to Germany's support for Ukraine had contributed to the AfD's gains.

"Many people oppose support for Ukraine, both financial and military," Schwesig said, adding that many voters also wanted energy supplies through the Nord Stream pipelines to resume.

The AfD has opposed Germany's military support for Ukraine and advocates restoring energy ties with Russia.

The Left comes first in Berlin

A separate state election was held in Berlin on Sept. 20, where the Left party was projected to finish first with 25.3% of the vote.

The CDU, which currently governs Berlin in coalition with the SPD, fell to 19%, while the AfD received 16.3%.

It is the first time the Left has finished first in a Berlin state election.