Russia considers military conflict with European countries among scenarios through 2045, Ukrainian intelligence says

In an assessment published on October 13, the agency said Moscow had not abandoned the possibility of direct military confrontation with Europe, despite Russian President Vladimir Putin's repeated claims that Russia does not intend to attack European countries.

The intelligence service said six of the scenarios under consideration concern Northern Europe, while scenarios involving Poland and the Baltic states are also being actively examined. It did not disclose the intelligence underlying those assessments or identify specific dates for potential military action.

According to the agency, Russia's more immediate objective is to undermine European unity and weaken support for Ukraine through activities that fall short of open warfare.

These include sabotage, cyberattacks, influence operations, disinformation, espionage and drone incursions.

The SZRU estimates that nearly 400 Russian intelligence operatives are currently present in Europe, where it says they seek to test the limits of NATO's response without triggering collective action.

One potential scenario involves a controlled regional crisis on NATO's eastern flank, particularly in the Baltic states, which Moscow reportedly considers vulnerable.

The aim, according to Ukrainian intelligence, would not necessarily be to defeat NATO militarily but to demonstrate that the alliance cannot respond quickly or effectively to threats against its members.

Such a crisis could force NATO to make decisions under conditions of uncertainty and severe time pressure, the agency said.

The SZRU warned that Russia is preparing for a prolonged confrontation in which its war against Ukraine and its broader strategy toward Europe are closely connected.

It urged European governments to strengthen their defenses, reduce energy dependence on Russia, maintain economic pressure on Moscow and continue supporting Ukraine.