Belarus massed up to 4,000 troops near Ukrainian border. UA Defence Ministry doesn't think it's offensive preparation

Belarus massed up to 4,000 troops near the Ukrainian border. Russian service members are also on the territory of Belarus. However, Ukraine's Defence Ministry does not see any preparations for a second offensive from Belarus, said Defense Ministry Spokesman Oleksandr Motuzyanyk.

The threat from Belarus has not vanished, but an offensive from that direction requires an offensive group.

"We saw this in the first weeks of the full-scale invasion. Due to the actions of Belarus, Russia advanced to the outskirts of Kyiv so fast. But back then, a powerful group was created. Now we do not see it," Motuzyanyk said.

Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Oleksiy Danilov also said that now troops on Belarusian territory are not enough for a possible offensive as it was in February.

In total, Belarus keeps up to 7 battalions in the bordering Brest and Gome Oblasts, equivalent to about 3.5 to 4,000 Belarusian service members. "There are also Russian troops. I will not say their number, but there are a number of settlements where they are located," the Defense Ministry Spokesman said.

According to the official, the number of the Belarusian army is about 60 thousand personnel. Now the government wants to increase the army by 20,000 service members. Above that, Belarus continues to provide logistical support to Russia. Ukraine's Defense Ministry does not rule out that Russia will be able to transfer additional reserves to Belarus quickly and prepare an offensive. Still, so far, the Ukrainian command does not see signs of offensive preparations.

However, Belarusian troops force Ukraine to keep its troops near the border. Russia now concentrates forces on Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast, while the rest of the regions are constantly being shelled to deter the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

"We understand very well that as soon as we remove the units from there, they can launch a second offensive. We do not expect this in the nearest future, but we are forced to strengthen this direction," Motuzyanyk said.

Background 

Ukrainian Defence Intelligence reported that the Belarusian Armed Forces began regular military drills on June 7 aimed at "transition from peacetime to wartime."

Drills in Gomel Oblast will last from June 22 to July 1 and involve all categories of service members, divisions, military units, formations, and military administration bodies. Drills for newly formed territorial troops will be held from June 28 to July 16 in the Zhlobin District of Gomel Oblast.

Belarus and the war in Ukraine

Although Belarusian regular forces are not involved in a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russian troops have used Belarus as a platform for attacks on Kyiv and Zhytomyr. Russia also uses Belarusian infrastructure to transfer its troops, deploy aircraft, missile launchers, and treatment of military personnel.

According to estimates by the monitoring group Belaruskyi Hajun, at least 631 missiles were launched from the territory of Belarus on Ukraine since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.