'Jaresko Does Not Want To Take Yatsenyuk's Job' — Balazs Jarabik

What You Need To Know:

✅ On changing the Prime Minister: “I do believe that Finance Minister Jaresko does not want to take this job;”

✅ The formal conflict between the President and the Prime Minister is a major roadblock in receiving the next IMF tranche;”

✅ A technocratic government would help Ukraine receive the next IMF tranche, however it would not solve the ongoing Ukrainian political crisis, Jarabik thinks;

✅ While Ukrainian public opinion does not favor Yatsenyuk, it is clear that people are also frustrated with other issues and overall, disappointed with the post-Maidan government.

Heightened tensions in the Ukrainian Parliament and declining public support for Ukrainian Prime Minister Yatsenyuk have led to growing speculation on whether US-born Finance Minister Natalie Jaresko would lead a new technocratic government. “I do believe that Finance Minister Jaresko does not want to take this job,” says Balazs Jarabik, scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, adding that there is a reasonably good relationship between the two of them.

Pressure from both internal and external forces can explain President Poroshenko’s push to replace the current Prime Minister, however Jarabik sees the formal conflict between the President and the Prime Minister as a major roadblock in receiving the next IMF tranche: “I think IMF conditionality is very clear. And it’s very obvious that the IMF is not going to pursue the next tranche until there is a solid government coalition, which at this stage is unclear.”

Jarabik believes a technocratic government would help Ukraine receive the next IMF tranche, however it would not solve the ongoing Ukrainian political crisis: “The technocratic government would not have the backing, neither in the Parliament, nor in the bureaucracy, nor on the political level, would not have a political way to pass through reforms.”

Both Ukrainians and Europeans are unhappy with the reform process, and while Ukrainian public opinion does not favor Yatsenyuk, it is clear that they are also frustrated about other issues and overall, disappointed with the post-Maidan Government, Jarabik points out.

Josh Kovensky of Kyiv Post and Hromadske spoke to Balazs Jarabik, scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, via Skype on March 3rd, 2016.