Kremlin Uses Crimea to Improve Its Position in Eastern Ukraine – Analyst

What You Need to Know:

✅ Russian reactions to developments in Crimea are becoming less extreme despite talks about severing diplomatic relations with Ukraine;
✅ The initial point of Russia's claims about Ukraine's "terrorist plottings" in Crimea was to put stress on the West and Kyiv to change the situation in the East of Ukraine;
✅ Putin set a goal to rule beyond 2018, to be President after the next Presidential elections.

After Russian President Vladimir Putin accused Ukraine of plotting terrorist attacks in Crimea, experts expected more decisive reactions from both sides and the West. However, despite Putin's and Russian Prime-Minister Medvedev's claims to sever diplomatic relations with Ukraine, Russia's reaction to the Crimean developments has actually cooled down. During a meeting with German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that "no one" is interested in severing Ukraine-Russia diplomatic relations.

Anton Barbashin, a specialist in international relations, claims that the initial goal of Russia's assertions about Ukraine's "plotting" in Crimea was to message Washington that Russia wants more political engagement from the West in Donbas and to make Kyiv more amenable to the Minsk II Agreements. Barbashin says that no military threat is imminent to Ukraine: "Russia showed readiness to communicate and be more diplomatic." However, Russia still uses its power to intimidate: "Russia used Crimea as one perfect example of where Russia could put greater military force against Ukraine."

The recent dismissal of Putin's close ally Sergei Ivanov from President's Chief of Staff position is a sign that Putin has learned from the mistakes of the Soviet Union. He rejuvenates the system, getting rid of a pensioner ruling elite. Putin lets new people in, people who owe him their position. "On the whole, Putin sets a goal to rule beyond 2018, to be the President after the next Presidential elections.

Hromadske’s Nataliya Gumenyuk spoke to Anton Barbashin, Managing Editor of the Intersection Project via Skype on August 19th, 2016.