Liberated Crimea by the end of summer 2023: forecasts of military experts

After the liberation of Kherson, the large-scale Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south was paused. Russians focused their efforts on the Bakhmut direction, and, according to the Ukrainian General Staff, they switched to defense in the south.

However, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valerii Zaluzhnyi hinted that the General Staff is preparing a new major operation, but “you have not seen it yet”. He also explained that the Ukrainian servicemen have to cover only 84 km and reach Melitopol to establish fire control over the land corridor in this direction.

“...from Melitopol, we can shell the Crimean isthmus with the HIMARS, for example, and so on,” Zaluzhnyi told The Economist.

hromadske asked military experts about the importance of the Zaporizhzhia direction for the liberation of Crimea and the prospects of the offensive in this area of the front.

“The most likely axis of the Ukrainian offensive”

Experts interviewed by hromadske predict new offensive operations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and do not expect a winter lull.

“Next year, the Ukrainian army will attempt to continue attrition Russian forces, while keeping their own losses as low as possible. So that means adjusting to what the Russians give them. I expect Ukraine to continue to do better in the war, but it will take time to waste down the new Russian forces,” Phillips Payson O'Brien, Professor of Strategic Studies at the University of St Andrews, Scotland, comments on the possible development of the situation on the battlefield in 2023.

Ben Hodges, former commander of US forces in Europe, retired general, predicts that over the next few weeks the Ukrainian army will continue to destroy Russian warehouses and headquarters, as well as logistics networks. In this way, the Ukrainian army will prepare the conditions for the liberation of Crimea, which, in his opinion, will be possible by the end of summer 2023.

Zaporizhzhia direction remains strategically important for achieving this goal, reserve colonel Roman Svitan assumes. After all, having reached the coast of the Azov Sea, the Ukrainian army will cut the land corridor of Russia with Kherson Oblast and Crimea.

“The task is not to liberate Melitopol, Berdiansk, or Mariupol. No, it is not. The task is to prevent columns from moving from Rostov towards Kakhovka. If we carry out such movements, we can practically say that we have won 50% of this war,” Svitan is convinced.

Without waiting for spring?

Advancing in this direction will allow the Ukrainian Armed Forces to cut the Russian grouping in Ukraine in half and change the dynamics of the war, explains Dr. Mike Martin, a visiting fellow at the Department of War Studies at King's College London. He calls the Zaporizhzhia direction “the most likely axis of the Ukrainian advance” and predicts that Ukraine will not wait for spring and will go on the offensive in winter, probably in January.

Military expert Roman Svitan makes similar predictions. He believes that the Ukrainians may go on the offensive in the second or third decade of January when frosts come to the south, which will provide easier movement of hardware.

Mike Martin believes that Ukrainian forces will try to liberate Tokmak as a key railway junction and reach the coast of the Azov Sea, which, however, may not be an easy mission, as the Russians will press from both sides. The preparation of a Ukrainian offensive in this direction, in his opinion, is indicated by “preparatory” acts — HIMARS strikes and the work of the guerrilla movement in Melitopol and Tokmak.

“This is how the Ukrainians work —destroy the logistics, and then run rings around the Russians. I expect that this is what we will see to the south of Zaporizhzhia and around Melitopol,” Martin said.

Instead, Roman Svitan assumes that Ukraine may move towards Crimea not only through the liberation of Melitopol. The Ukrainian Armed Forces may try to reach the Azov Sea coast through other cities, such as Berdiansk or Mariupol.

Dr. Mike Martin notes that the Russians are also preparing for the Ukrainian offensive, improving defenses in Tokmak, strengthening their group in Melitopol, and building defensive structures in general in this direction. However, the Ukrainian army is benefiting from the fact that Russia is still short of troops in the Zaporizhzhia direction, and those that are available are unprepared, divided, and unanimous — like Wagner, Kadyrovites, and separatist groups.

“Most of these groups don't like to play together and don't like redeploying to other operational areas,” Martin explains.

A successful offensive on the Zaporizhzhia direction will be an important victory for Ukraine, experts say. If the Ukrainian Armed Forces succeed and reach the Azov Sea coast, the Russian grouping west of Melitopol and the entire Crimea will be cut off from supplies. Therefore, “their eventual surrender or withdrawal seems inevitable,” adds Mike Martin.