Russia likely staged strike on 'DPR administration' in Donetsk to justify attacks on Ukraine's Independence Day — ISW

Russians may have resorted to a false flag event in the city of Donetsk on August 23 to justify attacks on Ukrainian government buildings on August 24, Ukraine's Independence Day, the American Institute for the Study of War writes.

Earlier, the occupation authorities of the part of Donetsk Oblast temporarily captured by the Russians announced a direct hit to the "administration" building of the "DPR" leader Denis Pushilin in the center of Donetsk City — allegedly as a result of Ukrainian shelling.

Russian Interfax news agency with reference to a representative of the "administration" wrote that the leader Pushilin himself was not injured as a result of the strike and "was in a safe place".

"Russian media framed the attack as a direct Ukrainian strike on a DPR government building, potentially to set information conditions for retaliatory strikes against Ukrainian government buildings on Ukrainian Independence Day," say analysts.

The ISW also reported that the Russian authorities are deploying units of the Russian Guard in Luhansk Oblast, probably in response to a decrease in support for the war against Ukraine and a growing reluctance to fight among Luhansk residents.

"Russian authorities’ deployment of Rosgvardia elements to security duties in occupied Luhansk Oblast diverts these forces from operations elsewhere in Ukraine, likely contributing to the broader Russian failure to translate limited tactical gains into operational successes," the report reads.

Other conclusions of analysts regarding the Russo-Ukrainian war as of August 23:

• Russian forces made limited gains east of Mykolaiv City and in northwestern Kherson Oblast;
• Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian military assets and ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in Kherson Oblast;
• Russian federal subjects (regions) are continuing to increase one-time enlistment bonuses for recruits, and are likely recruiting personnel with no prior military experience for specialist positions;
• Ukrainian partisan activity continues to disrupt Russian occupation activities.