Reports Russia’s Starlink rival launch failed may be premature, analysis suggests

Business Insider and the Institute for the Study of War had pointed to the relatively low altitude of the Rassvet satellites launched in late July as evidence of problems. Most remain between roughly 300 and 400 kilometers above Earth, below their intended operational altitude of more than 500 kilometers.

However, Militarnyi found that the satellites are following a pattern similar to - and in some cases ahead of - the first batch launched earlier this year.

The launch vehicle initially places Rassvet satellites at an altitude of around 300 kilometers. They then use their own propulsion systems to gradually raise their orbits.

Satellites from the first batch took roughly 98 to 120 days to climb above 500 kilometers. At the same point after launch, satellites from the second batch are generally at higher altitudes than their predecessors, according to the analysis.

That does not mean the latest launch was trouble-free.

One satellite was lost during the launch, while two others have stalled at around 363 and 353 kilometers and appear to be slowly losing altitude. Militarnyi said they may eventually reenter Earth’s atmosphere and burn up.

The outlet said a more reliable assessment of the second launch should be possible after roughly 100 to 125 days, comparable to the time it took most satellites from the first batch to reach operational altitude.

Russia’s planned Starlink alternative

Rassvet is being developed by Russian company Bureau 1440 as a low-Earth-orbit satellite communications network.

Russia launched its first 16 production satellites in March. The company plans to deploy 292 satellites by the end of 2030 and ultimately operate a constellation of 383, with commercial service expected to begin in 2027.

The system already provides at least two communications windows over Ukraine each day, each lasting more than an hour, according to previous analysis by Militarnyi.

But the constellation remains tiny compared with established satellite internet networks. SpaceX operates thousands of Starlink satellites, while competing networks have deployed hundreds.

Ukrainian electronic warfare expert Serhii Beskrestnov has said Russia would need at least several hundred Rassvet satellites before the system could be used effectively for military purposes.