Battle for Pokrovsk: What’s at stake as Russian forces move within 3 km of strategic Donbas city

Breakthrough from the south

The Russian troops began advancing towards Pokrovsk from the east after capturing Avdiyivka in February 2024. In May, the Russians seized the village of Ocheretyne, 30 kilometers west of Pokrovsk, and continued to move toward the Kostiantynivka-Pokrovsk highway.

In August, they occupied the town of Novohrodivka, but did not go directly to Pokrovsk. Instead, they headed south, moving along the railroad that came from Ocheretyne, and in October captured the neighboring town of Selydove.

In November, the Russian advance on the Pokrovsk axis slowed down somewhat: the town of Kurakhove became their main target, and they deployed their main forces there. However, in late November and early December, the Russians began to rapidly approach Pokrovsk from the south. First, they entered the village of Zhovte, and from there they moved towards the village of Shevchenko. As a result, the Russian army is now 3 kilometers from the main logistics hub in the south of Donetsk Oblast. The Ukrainian military told us how this was possible.

"We were given a task to set up positions in a plantation where there were already f*ckers," a fighter with the 59th Yakiv Handziuk Motorized Infantry Brigade wrote in his diary on November 29.

His unit was holding the line of defense on the southern flank of the Pokrovsk axis, where the Russians were moving in. He cites irrational tasks, disproportionate to the capabilities of the exhausted units, as the main reason for the rapid fall of the Zhovte-Novotroyitske-Shevchenko line.

"When you get an inadequate distance for defense for a battalion with almost worn-out infantry (other units are also needed, but infantry is the first priority), you cannot put up enough infantry positions," the soldier explains.

Accordingly, taking advantage of gaps in the defense, the Russians began to infiltrate in small groups, accumulate, and then advance to the positions of the "second" line—mortar units, UAVs, fire support companies—forcing them to engage in firefights with the enemy. This is corroborated by other interlocutors of hromadske on this front.

"The number of people clearly did not correspond to the front line, and instead of putting the new brigade in the defense line and closing the gaps, they threw it into an assault that failed," explains another fighter of the 59th Brigade.

hromadske asked the Khortytsia Operational-Strategic Troop Grouping to comment on the problems with the organization of defense and the gaps in the front line caused by the deployed units. Nazar Voloshyn, a spokesman for Khortytsia, believes that these problems should be explained by the 59th Brigade itself.

"We are losing our positions following this exact pattern. It's impossible to conduct reconnaissance over the vast area they give us. You can't physically cover everywhere. What happens next? They wear you down and then assign you a smaller area of responsibility. But by that point, you have so few resources left that you can't even hold that smaller area. And then they tell you, 'You can't even handle this?' Do you see the absurdity? If only they had given us an adequate area of responsibility from the start!" exclaims a soldier from the 59th Brigade (the first of our mentioned interlocutors).

Soldiers from other brigades holding the line to the east of Shevchenko also mention poor interaction between units. The capture of the village will complicate their situation, because now the Russians will be pressing them not only from the south, but also from the west.

"There is very poor interaction in general between larger units, that is, between brigades. Very poor interaction, to be honest. The left hand often does not know what the right hand is doing. This directly affects the quality of combat management and is one of the key reasons for what is happening, besides the lack of people, of course," says aerial reconnaissance man “Hus” from the 68th Jaeger Brigade.

Often this happens because lower-level commanders are afraid to report bad information to their superiors for fear of consequences and punishment, explains our source in the 59th Brigade.

"We have a system of circular insanity. Instead of passing information up the chain to make adequate decisions, there is a reluctance to deliver bad news because it will result in sanctions. This leads to negative selection of commanders, as those who accurately report information and challenge unreasonable orders are unwelcome. Instead, commanders who blindly follow even the most absurd of orders are promoted. I've come up with a philosophical concept for this—the cycle of duchebaggery in nature," says a soldier from the 59th Brigade, not hiding his outrage.

Is the situation really critical?

The military command does not hide the fact that the situation near Pokrovsk is currently difficult. In December, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrskyi, visited the soldiers of the 38th Marine Brigade defending Pokrovsk, noting that "we have to make non-standard decisions to increase the stability of defense and more effectively destroy the occupiers."

"The fighting is extremely fierce. Russian occupiers are throwing all available forces forward, trying to break through the defense of our troops," the army chief noted.

According to Nazar Voloshyn, spokesman for the Khortytsia troop grouping, the Russians lose an average of about 400 people killed and wounded daily in the Pokrovsk sector.

"The enemy's main goal is to level the front line and capture as much territory as possible to reach the administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts," he said.

In addition, the Khortytsia grouping denied the operational encirclement of Ukrainian units near Uspenivka, south of Kurakhove. The Russian offensive in the Kurakhove sector began almost simultaneously with the assaults near Pokrovsk. As of now, the Kurakhove sector has outpaced the Pokrovsk sector in terms of the number of battles.

On this section of the front, fighting continues on the outskirts of Uspenivka, Hannivka, Trudove and Romanivka. According to the Khortytsia troop grouping, the Defense Forces are preventing the enemy from seizing these settlements and encircling them.

What is happening in Pokrovsk?

Serhiy Dobriak, the head of the Pokrovsk City Military Administration, stated that the municipality began to build an echeloned defense in 2022. According to him, in October, the southern and western parts of the city were "completely closed".

In mid-November, hromadske journalists recorded that the city's preparations for defense were gaining momentum. Fortifications were finally being built in forest belts, not in the middle of a field, which is inconvenient for defense.

However, the fighters with whom hromadske spoke still have questions about the quality of these fortifications. Our source in the 25th Separate Airborne Brigade complains that the fortifications are being built according to Soviet manuals, and those recommendations do not take into account the realities of modern warfare:

"Note that they are three meters high, with few loopholes. We have been in such fortifications that we had to open the loopholes so that we could see them, otherwise we could not see the enemy approaching. We dug them, but how to observe the area? There was no way."

In Pokrovsk, where 60,000 people lived in peacetime, there are now about 11,500 residents left. Despite the constant shelling, there are still 18 children in the city, whom the local authorities promise to evacuate by December 15.

The railroad connection to the city stopped operating in September. Therefore, evacuation trains are departing from Pavlohrad, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

Survival in the city is becoming increasingly difficult. Critical infrastructure is 80% destroyed. Pokrovsk residents are left without water, gas and heating. Electricity is available only in some areas of the city, and often intermittently.

Recently, the authorities announced that they would stop delivering free water. The local administration explained that this was due to the danger of constant shelling. In addition, there is a shortage of drivers.

However, the community still has stationary drinking water distribution points that are purified through filters.

The authorities continue to urge residents to leave. To register for an evacuation train, one needs to leave a request by calling the Pokrovsk City Military Administration.

Why is Pokrovsk important?

Pokrovsk is a city in the western part of Donetsk Oblast, founded in 1881 as a railway station near the Cossack village of Hryshyne.

Due to its location, Pokrovsk became a strategic transportation hub. The city received the status of the "western gate of Donbas" because it is located on the border with Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and has routes to Donetsk, Kostiantynivka and Kramatorsk.

The loss of such an important hub will complicate supply chains for the Ukrainian military and put the Russians 18 kilometers from the administrative border of Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts.

In addition, Pokrovsk is an important center of the coal industry. Near the city, in the village of Udachne, there is the only coking coal mine on the government-controlled territory. The largest metallurgical plants in Ukraine need it to operate.

Oleksandr Kalenkov, President of the Association of Metallurgists and Miners of Ukraine, explained that if the mine is occupied, Ukraine will have to import coking coal from abroad. This could lead to a halving of steel production in Ukraine, the expert said. 

One section of the mine, located in the village of Pishchane near Pokrovsk, has already been suspended due to the approaching frontline. However, other key facilities of the mine continue to operate.

In general, the Pokrovsk district is rich in deposits of high-quality coal, sand and clay, which the Russians obviously want to take possession of.

In terms of Ukrainian culture, Pokrovsk is significant because from 1904 to 1908, composer Mykola Leontovych, the author of the famous song Shchedryk (Carol of the Bells), which is now associated with Christmas, lived and worked there.

Future prospects

After the problems in the village of Shevchenko, the command brought reserves to the line, including the 32nd Mechanized Brigade and the 425th Skala Assault Battalion. However, they were already engaged in counter-battles, and now the Russians have managed to gain a foothold 3 km from the city, the military defending the Pokrovsk axis told hromadske.

"Shevchenko is a fairly important defense hub. It is too close to the city itself. This will help the Russians a lot in terms of the work of the sabotage and reconnaissance groups," says aerial reconnaissance officer “Hus”.

As of December 13, the Khortytsia Operational-Strategic Troop Grouping denied the presence of Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups on the streets of Pokrovsk, let alone the start of fighting in the city.

A fighter with the 59th Brigade, who was interviewed by hromadske, believes that Pokrovsk has two options for the future: heavy urban fighting or encirclement and forced withdrawal of the Ukrainian army.

"In Shevchenko, the occupiers are about to cut the road to Pavlohrad at this rate. If they take it under fire control, it will complicate the situation for us. Pokrovsk is a fairly large city. Can you imagine how many forces and means we need to hold it?" the soldier explains.

However, it is not known how many reserves the Russians have left and whether they are able to continue at the same pace, he adds. Moreover, Pokrovsk has a comprehensive defense plan, but the main thing is to have soldiers to occupy the fortifications, says another soldier from the 59th Brigade.

"There are a lot of defense lines dug near Pokrovsk. I am afraid that if they are not held, the enemy may not even have to enter Pokrovsk. They will be comfortable sitting in those hundreds of dugouts," the fighter states.

According to him, "at this stage we do not see" people who can take the defense line.

At the same time, “Hus” believes that the Russians will not be able to quickly enter the city. In his opinion, they will try to bypass Pokrovsk not only from the south, but also from the west and north – from Myrnohrad. The Russian military will not manage to do this before the new year, the aerial reconnaissance man concludes.