Russia may have enough resources to continue war through 2028, Ukraine's military intelligence chief says

“Russia today is significantly weaker economically than it was at the beginning of the full-scale war,” Ivashchenko said in an interview with Ukrinform published on Sept. 7.

He identified labor shortages, a growing federal budget deficit and a deteriorating banking sector as the main problems facing the Russian economy.

At the same time, Ivashchenko cautioned that Russia still has sufficient resources to sustain its war against Ukraine.

“We do not rule out that these resources will be enough for both 2027 and 2028,” he said.

Ivashchenko said reducing Russia's ability to finance and supply its war effort would require continued cooperation between Ukraine and its partners, particularly in enforcing sanctions and restricting Moscow's access to foreign technology.

“Sanctions must actually work,” he said.

According to Ivashchenko, Ukrainian intelligence knows which countries are being used to supply Russia with electronic components, machine tools and specialized chemicals. He said numerous shell companies have emerged to import goods that ultimately support Russia's war effort.

Earlier in the interview, Ivashchenko said Ukrainian strikes on Russian military and energy infrastructure were also intended to erode Moscow's ability to sustain the war rather than simply demonstrate Ukraine's long-range strike capabilities.

“The task is to reduce the enemy's ability to produce weapons, supply its troops and continue this war,” he said.

Ivashchenko said Ukraine was combining long-range strikes with sanctions pressure and efforts with international partners to restrict components, technologies and equipment that Russia continues to obtain by circumventing sanctions.