Putin uses Abu Dhabi talks to secure concessions from Trump, not end war, former US ambassador says

Herbst, who served as US ambassador to Ukraine from 2003 to 2006, argued that Russian President Vladimir Putin is using the negotiations to maintain favorable relations with US President Donald Trump and secure concessions without offering anything substantial in return.

A prisoner exchange, but no progress toward peace

Asked whether the two days of negotiations justified cautious optimism, Herbst said the answer depended on what the talks were expected to achieve.

“I would say you can call the negotiations positive because it seems that there's now agreement on another prisoner exchange,” he said, describing the prospective exchange as a worthwhile humanitarian achievement.

But he drew a sharp distinction between that result and progress toward a peace settlement.

“On the large issue of making real progress towards a peaceful settlement, there was no progress. We are unaware of any specific step taken forward towards peace by either side,” Herbst said.

He emphasized that Ukraine had repeatedly accepted proposals aimed at moving toward peace, while Russia had not agreed to substantive steps toward ending the fighting.

Why Putin wants negotiations to continue

According to Herbst, Putin still believes Russia can defeat Ukraine militarily and ultimately undermine Western support for Kyiv. The former ambassador argued that the Russian president is acting on misleading assessments of the battlefield provided by his military.

“He thinks he's actually winning the war on the ground, which he's not,” Herbst said.

Herbst also accused the Trump administration of making a series of concessions to Moscow in recent weeks without obtaining corresponding commitments from Russia.

He cited decisions involving diesel, sanctions, Starlink access and a proposed trilateral meeting involving Trump, Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

These were Herbst's assessments of US policy, rather than independently established outcomes of the Abu Dhabi negotiations.

“Putin wants that to continue. That's the reason why he agreed to these talks in Abu Dhabi,” Herbst said.

He suggested that the Kremlin benefits politically from the appearance of engagement with Washington, even if it has no intention of making the compromises necessary for a settlement.

Herbst praised the sides for progress toward a prisoner exchange but stressed that this did not bring Ukraine or its Western partners “one inch closer to a stable peace.”

A Zelenskyy–Putin meeting remains unlikely

Herbst was also skeptical that the negotiations would lead to a meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Putin.

“The short answer is clearly no,” he said when asked whether such a meeting was possible in the foreseeable future.

He suggested that Putin might agree only if Zelenskyy traveled to Moscow, an option Herbst said the Ukrainian president should reject.

Herbst went further, speculating that Putin might find an excuse to cancel even if Zelenskyy accepted such an invitation.

He stressed, however, that this was his own assessment rather than a certainty.

According to Herbst, Putin expects a substantial concession merely for agreeing to meet Zelenskyy, despite Ukraine's repeated expressions of willingness to compromise.

“Putin on substance has not offered one thing,” he said.

Russian delegation raises questions about Moscow's intentions

Herbst said the appointment of Vladimir Medinsky to lead the Russian delegation had immediately raised doubts about the Kremlin's intentions.

He recalled publicly warning that Medinsky's appointment indicated Russia was not planning to make progress.

“And I think that analysis was right,” he said.

The former ambassador initially considered whether the participation of senior Russian intelligence and military officials might signal a more substantive approach.

He noted that earlier discussions involving military and intelligence representatives had addressed practical questions about how a potential ceasefire could operate, even without achieving an agreement to stop the fighting.

But he said the latest talks had produced no comparable movement toward compromise.

Herbst suggested that sending senior officials could instead serve to convince Trump that Moscow was taking the process seriously.

Was Russia trying to intimidate Budanov?

Herbst also addressed the presence of Dmitry Minayev, a senior Russian Federal Security Service official, among the delegation's experts.

Asked whether Minayev's reported links to an assassination attempt against Ukrainian intelligence official Kyrylo Budanov made his participation a deliberate act of intimidation, Herbst replied:

“I think there's no question. That's meant to intimidate.”

But he doubted the tactic would succeed.

“Knowing Budanov, I don't think it succeeded,” Herbst said.

He added that Russia would likely describe the inclusion of Ukrainian operatives associated with attacks on Russian military targets or alleged war criminals as a provocation.

For Herbst, the broader conclusion remained unchanged: Moscow was willing to participate in negotiations, but there was no evidence it was prepared to make the substantive compromises required for a lasting peace.