From ‘nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine’ to meeting in Saudi Arabia: what Trump and Putin are negotiating

Friendly conversation: Putin is drawing Trump into his narrative

Over the past week, Donald Trump has spoken with Putin about Ukraine at least twice. While last time the Russian leader was in no hurry to admit the fact of contact, this time the conversation was officially confirmed by both sides. According to Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov, Putin and Trump spoke for at least an hour and a half.

A few hours before, Volodymyr Zelenskyy admitted in an interview with the British newspaper Economist that he knew nothing about the contacts between Trump and Putin and received all the information about them from the press.

Donald Trump disclosed details of his talks with Putin in a post on his social media platform Truth Social. He noted that the conversation was "lengthy and highly productive." "We discussed Ukraine, the Middle East, Energy, Artificial Intelligence, the power of the Dollar, and various other subjects."

The Russian president's website also posted a short message, which makes it clear that Ukraine was the main topic: "Donald Trump called for an early cessation of hostilities and a peaceful solution to the problem. The Russian president supported one of the main theses of the American president that it is time for our countries to work together."

The Russian president invited Donald Trump to visit Moscow and noted that to end the war "it is necessary to eliminate the root causes of the conflict." In his post on Truth Social, Trump praised Putin for being constructive and confirmed that he intends to visit Russia in the future and host the Russian leader in the United States. He specifically mentioned that the United States and Russia were allies during World War II.

"We talked about the great history of our nations and reflected on the fact that we fought so successfully together in World War II, remembering that Russia lost tens of millions of people, and we lost so much too! Each of us spoke of the strengths of our peoples and the great benefits we would someday derive from working together. But first, as we both agreed, we want to stop the millions of deaths that are taking place in the war between Russia and Ukraine. President Putin even used my very strong campaign slogan: ‘common sense’. We both believe in it very strongly. We have agreed to work together, very closely, including visiting each other's countries," Donald Trump said.

The references to common history and World War II may indicate that Putin managed to drag Trump into the territory of his senses and impose the Russian imperial narrative. Interestingly, when talking about the losses in World War II, Trump does not mention other peoples of the Soviet Union who participated in it, including Ukrainians.

According to the Ukrainian Institute of National Remembrance, 6 million Ukrainians fought in the Soviet army during World War II. At least 3 million were killed in action. In addition, more than 5 million civilians died on the territory of Ukraine during the war.

Donald Trump's mention of Russia's great role in the victory over Nazi Germany and his complete disregard for Ukraine's role may indicate that in his worldview, Ukrainians have no subjectivity in the historical process. Perhaps this is why Trump calls Putin first and then Zelenskyy.

A diplomatic victory for Putin?

Trump's willingness to talk to Putin and exchange invitations undermines efforts to isolate Russia politically in the West. It is not known how the US-Russian talks on Ukraine will end, but the very fact of these talks is becoming a diplomatic victory for Vladimir Putin.

First, the West talked to him again. Second, Putin is negotiating the fate of Ukraine bypassing Kyiv. Therefore, the principle of "nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine," which was strictly adhered to by the previous US President Joe Biden, is in fact no longer valid.

In a comment to CNN, John Bolton, who served as National Security Advisor in the first Trump administration in 2018-2019, noted that Donald Trump "effectively surrendered" to Vladimir Putin on the eve of negotiations on Ukraine's fate: "Putin couldn't be happier. I'm telling you, today in the Kremlin they drink vodka straight from the bottle. It was a great day for Moscow."

Democratic Senator Adam Schiff also slammed Trump for his call to Putin.

"President Trump called our enemy, Russia, before calling our ally, Ukraine. Meanwhile, his Secretary of Defense, ruled out a future for Ukraine in NATO and a restoration of Ukrainian sovereignty over its own lands. Let’s not mince words about what this represents: a surrender of Ukraine’s interests and our own, even before negotiations begin. Trump’s a great dealmaker all right — for the Kremlin," Adam Schiff wrote on X.

Roland Oliphant, a journalist for the reputable British newspaper Telegraph, agreed with Schiff's assessment. According to him, Trump's call to Putin was a real gift for the Kremlin: "If that is what happened, it is a great victory for Putin’s worldview. The Russian president has always believed that only those countries that decide the fate of others can be truly sovereign. Yet a victory for Putin’s ego is not the same as a victory in the war. At least, it does not have to be."

If Trump succeeds in freezing the war in Ukraine at the contact line, it will "rreward Russia with stolen land and leave Ukraine vulnerable to a second attack in years to come," Roland Oliphant wrote in the article for the Telegraph.

"The cordon sanitaire Western countries threw around Moscow in a bid to isolate the Russian president is gaping open. There is still much to play for, and the grim, inevitable rules of war mean that the fighting at the front will only intensify as a ceasefire looms closer. Meanwhile, Britain and Europe must ask whether they to want to be at the table – or on the menu. It is decision time," Roland Oliphant wrote.

Nevertheless, Trump's peace efforts can be seen as a positive for Ukraine, regardless of whether they lead to a cessation of hostilities. Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth insists that Trump's talks with Putin are not a "betrayal" of Ukraine. After all, the American leader is not only calling Putin, but also talking to Zelenskyy.

It is also noteworthy that Trump does not accuse Kyiv of being unwilling to reach peace through negotiations, as Putin constantly says. Instead, the US president emphasizes that Ukraine wants a peace agreement and holds Russia responsible for the continuation of the war.

Zelenskyy's reaction

Trump's conversation with Zelenskyy, which took place immediately after Putin's call, lasted about an hour. The Ukrainian president said that Kyiv was ready to work with Washington to end the war.

"We had a long conversation. We discussed a lot of nuances - diplomatic, military, economic - and President Trump informed me about what Putin had told him. We also talked about our technological capabilities, in particular, drones and other modern production. I am grateful to President Trump for his interest in what we can do together. Ukraine wants peace more than anyone else. We are defining our joint steps with the United States to stop Russian aggression and guarantee a reliable, lasting peace. We agreed on further contacts and meetings," Zelenskyy said after the call.

Shortly before the phone call with Trump, Zelenskyy met with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who came to Kyiv on an official visit. Bessent handed Zelenskyy a draft partnership agreement between Ukraine and the United States on security, economic and resource cooperation.

"We discussed Ukraine's mineral resources with Scott Bessent. Our team was given the first draft of the relevant US document on partnership between our countries. We will do everything to quickly reach an agreement and sign this document at the Munich Security Conference," Zelenskyy said.

According to the US treasury secretary, this document is in line with Donald Trump's vision of ending the war quickly. It is not yet known whether this agreement provides for further supplies of American weapons to Ukraine.

"The Rare Earths Agreement is an element of a larger peace deal that President Trump has in mind. Increasing our economic engagement by partnering with the government and people of Ukraine will provide a long-term security shield for Ukraine when the conflict is over," Scott Bessent said after his meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

In turn, Trump noted that the conversation with Zelenskyy was fruitful. He also announced talks between Ukraine's representatives and an American delegation headed by Vice President J.D. Vance and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The meeting is scheduled to take place on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference on Friday, February 14.

"The conversation went very well. He [Zelenskyy], like President Putin, wants to make peace. We discussed a variety of topics related to the war, but most of all, the meeting that is scheduled for Friday in Munich. I hope that the results of this meeting will be positive. It is time to stop this ridiculous war, where there has been massive, and totally unnecessary, DEATH and DESTRUCTION. God bless the people of Russia and Ukraine!" Donald Trump wrote.

It was an unpleasant surprise for Ukraine that Trump did not distinguish between the victim of aggression and the aggressor. Obviously, the priority for the American president is to stop the fighting, not the conditions under which it will happen.

Is Ukraine an equal participant in the peace process?

This question was posed to the US president by an American journalist during a briefing that followed Trump's phone calls with Putin and Zelenskyy. Donald Trump thought about it and eventually evaded a direct answer.

"It's an interesting question. I think they have to make peace. Their people are being killed and I think they have to make peace. I said that was not a good war to go into and I think they have to make peace. That's what I think," Donald Trump said.

In addition, the US president opposed Ukraine's accession to NATO, calling the Ukrainian state's accession to the Alliance "unlikely and impractical." Trump said that Russia has long insisted that Ukraine cannot be a member of NATO. And he fully agreed with this position: "Personally, I don't think it's practical for Ukraine to be a member of NATO. This has been going on for many years. They [the Russians] have been saying for a long time that Ukraine cannot join NATO, and that suits me."

Moreover, Trump said that Zelenskyy would have to accept the occupation of those Ukrainian territories currently under Russian control. Although he did not rule out that in the future Ukraine would be able to return some of them. The US president did not specify how this would happen. Trump also said that Ukraine should hold elections, in which Zelenskyy seems to have little chance of winning.

"He's going to have to do what he has to do, but, you know, his poll numbers aren't particularly great. To put it mildly. He's got a country where it's been savaged and attacked. And he's got an army that's been very, very brave actually despite the fact that we've given him in my opinion $350 billion. That's what the real number is. My finance minister has come to Ukraine to prepare a document that will ensure that we get this money back in some form. They have rare earth metals, they have oil and gas, and they have many other things, and we are asking for security for our money. Ukraine agreed to this," Donald Trump said.

By the way, Trump has once again exaggerated the amount of American aid to Ukraine. According to Kiel University, since the full-scale invasion, the United States has provided Ukraine with $110 billion in aid.

Finally, the American president confirmed that he intends to meet with Vladimir Putin in person. He said that preparations are already underway, and the meeting will take place in Saudi Arabia in the near future: "I expect Putin to come here [to the United States] and I will come there [to Russia]. But before that, we will meet for the first time in Saudi Arabia. In the not too distant future."

Meanwhile, in Paris, the foreign ministers of Ukraine, France, Germany, Poland, Italy, Spain, the UK and the EU signed a joint statement demanding European involvement in the peace talks.

"We are ready to enhance our support for Ukraine. We commit to its independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity in the face of Russia's war of aggression. We share the goal to keep supporting Ukraine until a just, comprehensive and lasting peace is reached. A peace that guarantees the interest of Ukraine and our own. We are looking forward to discussing the way ahead together with our American allies. Our shared objectives should be to put Ukraine in a position of strength. Ukraine and Europe must be part of any negotiations," the statement reads.

The latest Ramstein meeting is a cold shower for Europe

On February 12, a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (Ramstein), initiated by the Joe Biden administration in April 2022, began in Brussels.

This meeting was chaired for the first time by UK Defense Secretary John Healey, who said that 2025 is a critical year for the war in Ukraine and called on partners to increase military support. He said that this year the UK would provide $5.4 billion in military aid to Ukraine.

After John Healey's opening remarks, Pentagon Chief Pete Hagseth made his first statements in the international arena. He voiced the Trump administration's categorical refusal to have U.S. troops participate in any peacekeeping missions in Ukraine.

"Under no circumstances will US troops be involved in Ukraine. Europe should provide most of the future lethal and non-lethal assistance to Ukraine. The members of this contact group must be in tune with the moment. This means providing more ammunition and equipment, and expanding the defense industry. The US will no longer tolerate an unbalanced relationship that breeds dependence. Europeans must take responsibility for the continent's conventional security," Pete Hegseth said.

In addition, Hegseth noted that returning Ukraine to the 2014 borders is an "unrealistic objective". He also said that the United States is changing its foreign policy priorities and plans to focus on deterring China in the Pacific rather than ensuring the security of the European continent.

Hegseth acknowledged that Kyiv needs effective security guarantees to prevent a repeat attack by Russia. However, he ruled out Ukraine's membership in NATO.

"A durable peace for Ukraine must include robust security guarantees to ensure that the war will not begin again. This must not be Minsk 3.0. That said, the United States does not believe that NATO membership for Ukraine is a realistic outcome of a negotiated settlement.

Instead any security guarantee must be backed by capable European and non-European troops. If these troops are deployed as peacekeepers to Ukraine at any point, they should be deployed as part of a non-NATO mission. And they should not covered under Article 5," he said.

On the other hand, Ukraine's Defense Minister Rustem Umerov asserted that Ukraine will continue its movement toward NATO membership and said that the current Ramstein summit will focus on security and defense assistance to Ukraine, and that all political issues will not be discussed by defense ministers.