NATO’s new Russia defense plan puts drones and AI at center of eastern flank warfare

The “theory of victory” is expected to be presented by NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe Gen. Alexus Grynkewich in Poland on Oct. 12. Bloomberg said it had reviewed an unclassified version of the document.

The strategy is intended to spell out how NATO would respond to an incursion into allied territory while demonstrating that the alliance has the capability to defeat such an attack quickly and decisively.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has said there are currently no indications that Russia is preparing a conventional attack on the alliance, while warning that Europe should expect continued hybrid threats.

Under the concept described by Bloomberg, NATO would seek to stop an incursion using land forces alongside capabilities deployed under its Eastern Flank Deterrence Initiative, including low-cost drones, minimally crewed systems and AI-assisted targeting.

Once it gained freedom of maneuver, allied forces would seek to destroy enemy command-and-control systems and defeat the attacking forces “quickly and overwhelmingly.”

Grynkewich’s spokesperson, Col. Martin O’Donnell, declined to discuss details but said the commander’s approach was to “maintain NATO’s advantage.”

“Given the unsettled and complex global security environment, we need to set conditions now to deter aggression and, if necessary, win if attacked,” O’Donnell said.

The strategy also reflects lessons from Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which has accelerated the battlefield use of drones, autonomous systems and AI alongside conventional weapons.

The document stresses that NATO remains a defensive alliance and calls for avoiding unintended provocations while collectively countering hybrid threats below the threshold of open conflict.