NATO allies fear Trump could pull more US troops from Europe after midterm losses - Politico
European NATO allies fear that a Republican defeat in Tuesday's US midterm elections could prompt President Donald Trump to intensify pressure on the alliance, potentially withdrawing thousands more American troops from Europe or cutting NATO funding, Politico reported, citing five NATO diplomats.
The concern is that a Democratic-controlled Congress could constrain Trump's domestic agenda, pushing him to focus on foreign policy, where the president has greater freedom to act.
"Usually what happens to lame duck presidents is a mix of venting frustrations and adventurism in foreign policy," a senior European defense official told Politico, adding that challenging NATO appeared to be a consistent part of Trump's worldview.
US troop withdrawals and Ukraine aid
A review of the US military presence in Europe is expected by December. Three NATO diplomats told Politico they feared Trump could expand planned troop reductions following a Republican electoral defeat to appeal to his MAGA supporters.
The president could also seek to make continued US military deployments in Europe conditional on European support for a Washington-backed peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia, according to Oana Lungescu, a former NATO official and senior fellow at the Royal United Services Institute.
"There is a risk that all these things - the US force posture review, Ukraine, European security order … somehow are treated as part of a much bigger deal with Putin," Lungescu said.
Diplomats also raised concerns that Trump could reduce US contributions to NATO's common funding, restrict the NATO-backed Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) program for purchasing American weapons for Ukraine, or further deepen ties with Russia.
US law currently sets a minimum troop presence of 76,000 in Europe, although analysts questioned how effectively such restrictions could constrain the administration.
A larger American withdrawal would leave European allies struggling to replace critical capabilities, including air defense, electronic warfare, intelligence and reconnaissance, aerial refueling, and logistics, according to Jennifer Kavanagh of the Defense Priorities think tank.
White House defends Trump's NATO record
White House Assistant Press Secretary Olivia Wales told Politico that Trump had "done more for NATO than anyone else," pointing to allies' agreement to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035 and efforts to end Russia's war against Ukraine.
She also said Trump remained convinced that NATO allies should have supported the United States in its war with Iran.
Not all European officials share the worst-case assessment. Montenegro's Defense Minister Dragan Krapović noted that earlier predictions of a US withdrawal from NATO had not materialized.
Politico also reported speculation that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth could leave his position following a major Republican defeat, potentially delaying decisions on troop deployments.
NATO and the Pentagon did not respond to Politico's requests for comment.
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