From hope to halt: What happens to Ukraine's military reforms now?

"You can sense either deception or insufficient work here"

"Only a handful of us have signed [contracts]."

"Not a single one in my battalion."

"There were no explanations at all."

"Everyone has already forgotten about them [the contracts] and is working as before."

These responses reflect how fast different units are signing new contracts.

It seemed the state had finally decided to address the painful issue of service terms by offering different types of contracts. For infantrymen and assault troops — 6, 10, or 14 months; for drone pilots, electronic warfare specialists, and rear-echelon personnel — 24 months. The Defense Ministry promised a new system of additional payments, and after a contract ends, at least six months of deferment.

Many volunteers who have been in the military since the start of the full-scale invasion (or even since the Anti-Terrorist Operation) were outraged, because the most attractive conditions applied to those who had put off joining the army until the last moment. The ministry reassured them that fairness for volunteers would be measured by longer deferments (the longer you have served, the longer the deferment), and by the end of the year, they planned to announce criteria for gradually discharging those who have served the longest — even if they had signed contracts.

But why did no line of people wanting to sign contracts appear?

"The guys, on an individual basis like me, asked, for example, about that very deferment calculator: would there be one, when, and so on. In the end, no one could properly explain how it is all calculated. They dropped a link in one of our chats to the relevant slides from the Defense Ministry — and that was the end of it," said the commander of a drone squad in one of the combat brigades, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Distrust was immediate because it was presented as an experimental project approved by a Cabinet of Ministers resolution. And now [the distrust] is even greater. Because a Cabinet resolution is the kind of thing that can change in half a day. And the Cabinet itself in our country changes in half a day. So how can you believe in this?drone unit commander

"Honestly, no one simply believes in those service terms. And even less so that at the end of autumn they will start discharging, in some mysterious order, those who joined up in 2022," our interlocutor added with disillusionment.

Against the backdrop of news that Russia is preparing to mobilize half a million people in the fall, while Ukraine’s mobilization reform has yet to be launched, the soldiers’ skepticism is understandable.

"What will happen in 10 months, when, for example, several percent of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are written off in a single month? And with the right to a guaranteed deferment of at least half a year. Who will replace all these trained people? Right here, you can sense either deception or insufficient work," said another fighter in one of the combat brigades, adding:

Personally, I expect that at the end of the contract, I will get an answer like: "This contract was invented five defense ministers ago. Now either extend it, or we will add some new conditions to the current contract."

According to our information, the low pace of signing new contracts (the last report mentioned more than a thousand reports) is connected to the sabotage of the reform by the General Staff.

"Right now, instructions are being sent down 'from above' in manual mode to battalion, company, and platoon commanders to tell the personnel, like, 'this is all bulls**t, do not sign,'" said another informed interlocutor. This conversation took place a day before Mykhailo Fedorov first began speaking openly about the conflict with the General Staff.

"I fear the reforms may stall"

We asked Fedorov at a news conference about the effectiveness of the reform, what will happen to it now, and whether it is true that there was resistance at the level of the General Staff.

He stated that almost all initiatives of the Defense Ministry were being blocked. The General Staff did not comment on these accusations.

"I do not want our news conference to turn into [me] complaining about the General Staff. But how does informing happen? It is impossible to carry out a contract reform if I do it just from the Defense Ministry. The General Staff must be a participant in this," Fedorov said.

He did not name the exact number of signed contracts as of now — only adding that the situation varies depending on the unit. Where commanders themselves "promote" them internally, the statistics are better.

"This reform has shortcomings and problematic issues, as with any product that has just been born," said Hero of Ukraine Oleksandr Nastenko, commander of the 475th Separate Assault Regiment CODE 9.2. “They can be fixed and gradually brought to a normal level, but this requires work. Because otherwise — why change anything at all, let us leave it as it was? Although what will happen now — I do not understand. God grant that it continues.”

Fedorov had cited his unit as an example: "It seems that out of three or four thousand people, a thousand signed contracts."

"It very much depends on how commanders explain all this," Nastenko added. “Because a person is afraid of everything new. My commanders paid attention to this, gathered the guys, sat down, discussed it, listened to questions, answered them. And people calmly signed the contracts.”

But I fear that the reforms launched by Fedorov may stall. I fear that the train that was launched will not simply lose speed, but that someone pulled the emergency brake.Oleksandr Nastenko, commander of the 475th Separate Assault Regiment CODE 9.2

"And I have a question: will the new defense minister sign off on what the Fedorov ministry introduced, or will he say that this is all bulls**t?" said soldier Serhiy Hnezdilov on his part. “We had hoped that this experimental program would become law, and then amendments could perhaps be made to that law. Unfortunately, that did not happen. Now everything is hanging in the air.”

Almost two years ago, he went AWOL publicly, demanding clear terms of service. He has already been in the military for seven years. He says explanations about the new contracts are not happening in the units. But essentially, he has nothing to lose: he decided to sign a combat contract for two years.

"Frankly, there is no line for a contract army"

"This product was not appreciated, and there is no demand for it. I think few people believe that the state will fulfill its obligations regarding these contracts," said soldier Ihor Lutsenko, who until recently commanded a drone operators unit. But after Deputy Commander of the Air Force Pavlo “Lazar” Yelizarov resigned amid Fedorov's removal, he is worried about something else entirely.

"Projects for air defense coverage, anti-drone air defense and so on were barely moving forward, there was terrible resistance. And now, when a personnel storm is happening in the Defense Forces system — Fedorov and Yelizarov are leaving — everyone is shocked. This risks becoming the destruction of all our hopes," Lutsenko said and continued about the launched reform:

"This is at least half of it. The other half of the reform envisioned some kind of line for release — that was the main thing. And in the ministry, according to my sources, there really was a vision of how to form that line. In reality, that is what we should have started with."

It was necessary to show that a process was being built and that there would be a real opportunity to give several years of civilian life. Right now, no such opportunity is even visible on the horizon. That is why people decided not to bother with this [new contracts — ed.].Ihor Lutsenko, military officer

"Changes in our system were necessary, and they need to be made. Their quality — that is another question. Well, I will tell you frankly as the commander of an infantry-assault unit: there is no line for a contract army," said Svoboda Battalion Commander Petro Kuzyk.

According to him, they still have not received explanations regarding these contracts.

"In general, everyone is waiting for horizontal awareness,” he said. “In other words: until the infantry, which now has little trust in any government initiatives, feels that this works, that there is real support, until they learn to calculate correctly… Well, what does that mean — you shot an occupier, so you get a bonus, but if you did not shoot but there was a deadly battle and a drone killed him, but you fired at him?"

Until all these nuances with payments fall into place and there is a clear understanding that this really works — until then it will be perceived as advertising from a billboard.Petro Kuzyk, commander of the Svoboda Battalion of the 4th Operational Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine "Rubizh”

But there is a partial effect, Kuzyk said: "As soon as the infantry understands that they are not being fooled as always, but that people are really working to improve and preserve lives — the situation with mobilization will gradually, microscopically improve.

Any reform is implemented not by a cavalry charge but step by step. That is, time must pass, mistakes must be polished, corrections made, certain systems 'fine-tuned.' That is the concept of reform. But Fedorov's team felt that the main thing was that changes were needed. I think they would have 'polished' them to the required level, because they had that vision and they listened to the infantry. I am concerned if this will continue further."

"We made a mistake "

"For three years now, soldiers have been told that we are now going to do something about service terms. And then nothing happens. And my main question is: obviously, the problem is somewhere at the top. Is there an understanding that it is impossible to ensure service terms without new mobilization?" MP Inna Sovsun asked Fedorov at the news conference.

At the same time, Mykhailo Fedorov acknowledged a mistake they had made in launching the first stage of the army's transformation.

We made a mistake that cannot be allowed when you launch large-scale transformations involving many people. We did not talk with the Ukrainian people in the person of lawmakers, the Ukrainian people themselves, expert groups, the military, when we carried out the first stage of the army's transformation and proposed contracts.Mykhailo Fedorov, former Minister of Defense of Ukraine

"And I understand one thing: whichever minister makes the next stage of proposals regarding mobilization — the first thing that needs to be done: talk openly with society, publish a vision, gather different groups, talk with all deputies in the regions, the police, separately gather all military recruitment center heads, talk with everyone and form a new social contract regarding the reform of the military recruitment centers," Fedorov stated.

The Office of the President told hromadske that overall feedback from the army on the new contracts is negative and acknowledged that very few had been signed. And now, they say, "We need to think about what to do with this."

"Even in conversations between corps commanders and the president, there was feedback that the contracts are somewhat problematic and that we need to look at this differently," said our source in the Office of the President. “But right now, at the moment of transformation, to be honest — there is no time for this. Based on the results of personnel changes with new people and, possibly, with corps and brigade commanders, we will need to discuss how they see it.”

When asked about the President’s Office’s vision for mobilization reform and whether there are plans to revisit already implemented changes, they only responded that these issues will be addressed after the personnel rotations.

"It is clear that the contract path is the main model," our source in the Office of the President noted. “But how this system will work will be decided after the personnel changes and in the new configuration of people.”

According to former Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi — as of July 20, only about two thousand service members have signed new contracts in a million-strong army. Instead, "a large number of demotivated soldiers and officers have appeared who expected one set of conditions but received another."

"The very resolution regarding the 'experiment' raises serious legal questions," Syrskyi wrote in a column amid the protests and accusations of conflicts and sabotage. “Compare: raising monetary support in the Interior Ministry system was done through changes to the budget and through the Verkhovna Rada. There you have the difference between a decision and a presentation. Because presentations should not turn into self-presentations: behind every slide there should be a document, a budget and a procedure. Otherwise, instead of a decision the army receives disappointment.”

Speaking of mobilization reform, the commander-in-chief noted that the General Staff is ready for changes.

"The Land Forces and the military recruitment centers are in my vertical, and we are ready for changes: we attend all meetings in the Verkhovna Rada, transfer all violations to the State Bureau of Investigation, and insist on involving the police. But the reform itself is legislative and administrative work of the ministry. I am waiting for it just as the whole country is waiting," Syrskyi stated at the time.