76% of Ukrainians oppose Russia’s peace plan, 54% back Europe-Ukraine peace deal
The number of Ukrainians willing to support certain peace plans has increased, but most respondents categorically reject Russia’s plan and are largely negative toward the U.S. plan, according to a Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) poll.
KIIS first surveyed Ukrainians on their attitudes toward various peace plans to end the war in May 2025. In July-August 2025, the same questions were asked again to track changes in public sentiment.
The sociologists presented simplified versions of proposals from the U.S., Russia, and a joint Ukraine-Europe plan, framed as follows:
- U.S. conditional plan:
- A group of European states, but without the USA, give Ukraine security guarantees
- Russia retains control over occupied territories
- USA officially recognizes Crimea as part of Russia
- Ukraine moves towards EU accession
- USA and Europe lift all sanctions against Russia
- Europe and Ukraine conditional plan:
- Ukraine receives reliable security guarantees from Europe and the USA
- Russia retains control over the occupied territories, but Ukraine and the world do not officially recognize this
- Ukraine moves towards EU accession
- After establishing a lasting peace, the USA gradually eases its sanctions against Russia
- Russia conditional plan (including a positive element from the Russian Memorandum—EU membership progress):
- Ukraine must significantly reduce its army and limit its armaments
- Ukraine permanently renounces NATO membership
- The cities of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and the entire territory of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts come under Russian control
- Ukraine officially recognizes all occupied territories as part of Russia and renounces them permanently
- Ukraine moves towards joining the EU
- The USA and Europe lift all sanctions against Russia
Respondents were randomly presented with one of the three plans, and the sociologists did not disclose the plans’ authorship.
The results showed that 76% of Ukrainians categorically reject Russia’s plan (down from 82% in May), while 17% are willing to accept Russia’s demands (up from 10% in May).
The U.S. plan is acceptable to 39% of respondents (up from 29% in May), though most emphasized it is a difficult option. However, 49% find the U.S. plan categorically unacceptable (down from 62% in May).
The joint Europe-Ukraine plan is supported by 54% (up from 51% in May), with 30% deeming it categorically unacceptable (down from 35% in May).
About the poll
The survey was conducted from July 23 to August 4, using telephone interviews (CATI) based on a random sample of mobile phone numbers across all Ukrainian government-controlled regions.
A total of 1,022 Ukrainian citizens aged 18 and older, residing in government-controlled areas at the time of the survey, were interviewed. The sample excluded residents of temporarily occupied territories (though some respondents were internally displaced persons from occupied areas) and Ukrainians who left the country after February 24, 2022.
The sociologists acknowledged that a standard survey, especially by phone, cannot fully explore the plans due to their complexity. They prepared three abbreviated versions focusing on what they considered key elements.
“We are aware that the shortened versions cannot claim to be a complete reproduction of the proposed plans, but we believe that in our research version we have covered the important components and were able (as will be shown below) to clarify the differences in perception,” KIIS stated.
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