Ukraine says strikes have disabled over half of Russia's oil refining capacity

Ukraine's Defense Ministry said intelligence services, the General Staff and ministry analysts had assessed the cumulative impact of recent long-range strikes and concluded that more than 51% of Russia's oil refining capacity had been disabled.

The ministry did not provide a detailed methodology for the estimate or specify how much of the affected capacity was expected to remain offline.

Defense Minister Yevhenii Khmara said the figure reflected a sustained campaign aimed at weakening Russia's ability to finance and supply its war against Ukraine. The ministry named refineries in Moscow, Yaroslavl, Kirishi, Perm, Ilsky, Saratov and Syzran among facilities recently struck, along with the Ust-Luga oil complex.

Independent assessments confirm significant disruption to Russia's refining sector, although they do not substantiate the Ukrainian ministry's 51% figure.

Russia has roughly 6.5 million barrels per day of installed refining capacity, according to the International Energy Agency. Russian refinery throughput fell to 3.8 million barrels per day in June, its lowest level in more than 20 years and around 30% below a year earlier. Gasoline output was down 20% year on year, while diesel production was estimated to have fallen by nearly 30%.

As of mid-September, the IEA had recorded 204 confirmed Ukrainian drone and missile strikes on 28 major Russian refineries. Only five major refineries remained untouched, all located in eastern Siberia or Russia's Far East beyond the range of Ukraine's most advanced long-range drones at the time.

Repeated strikes have increasingly targeted complex secondary processing units, which can take considerably longer to repair than basic crude-distillation equipment. The IEA said serious damage to such units can require six to eight months of repairs, while Moscow's 250,000-barrel-per-day refinery was reportedly damaged badly enough in June to remain offline until early 2027.

The attacks have forced Russia to take increasingly unusual measures to protect domestic fuel supplies. Moscow has restricted exports of gasoline and imposed its first-ever export bans on jet fuel and diesel. Russia has also relaxed fuel-quality standards and begun importing gasoline from Belarus and Kazakhstan, as well as by sea from Morocco, South Korea, India and Türkiye.

Ukraine has continued the campaign in recent days. Bloomberg reported on Oct. 2 that Ukrainian drones struck Lukoil's Volgograd refinery, which can process around 300,000 barrels of crude per day, and a major oil-pumping hub in Russia's Samara region. Satellite data showed heat anomalies consistent with fires at both sites.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told Reuters that Ukraine intends to intensify attacks on Russian refineries in response to Moscow's escalating strikes on Ukrainian energy and civilian infrastructure.

Ukraine's Defense Ministry said production and procurement of long-range strike drones had tripled this year and that Kyiv planned to further expand its deep-strike capabilities.