Will Russia’s attacks decrease after Ukraine destroyed dozens of Russian warpanes?

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Has anything changed since the start of the full-scale invasion?

A recent record was set: overnight into June 1, Russian forces launched 479 aerial attack assets against Ukraine. The assault included 472 Shahed strike drones and various decoy drones, plus three ballistic and four cruise missiles.

Ukraine’s Air Force reported downing 210 drones and three missiles. Another 172 drones were lost to radar or suppressed by electronic warfare. Hits were recorded at 18 locations.

The previous drone record was set less than a week earlier, on May 26, when 355 drones and nine cruise missiles targeted Ukraine. The Air Force destroyed all missiles and neutralized 288 drones.

The day before, on May 25, Russia unleashed 367 aerial attack assets on Ukraine’s rear—69 missiles of various types and 298 drones. Ukrainian forces downed 45 missiles and 266 drones.

Has Russia really boosted its production capacity?

There’s no clear evidence of significant production increases, according to military analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko. While Russia is trying to ramp up output, progress is slow.

You can’t say they’re producing even 200 finished Shahed-136 units daily—it’s nowhere close. Two hundred fuselages? Possibly, but even that’s questionable.Oleksandr Kovalenko, military analyst and expert at the Tymchuk Ukrainian Center for the Study of Security Problems

However, Ukraine’s Air Force sees signs that Russia is increasing production of both decoy drones and Shaheds.

Kovalenko, in comments to hromadske, noted that smaller drone attacks occur between major assaults. For instance, after launching over 350 drones on May 26, Russia used only 60 on May 27, 88 on May 28, 90 on May 29, 90 on May 30, and 107 on May 31.

This suggests a stockpiling process, Kovalenko said. Russia needs these pauses, for both drones and missiles, to address shortages when production can’t keep up with demand.

What tactics does Russia use?

Russia has adopted a new drone tactic that reduces the effectiveness of mobile enemy groups, said Yuriy Ihnat, spokesperson for Ukraine’s Air Force, in comments to hromadske.

A large group of dozens of drones attacks a single target from high altitude, diving [directly onto] the target. They’ve only recently started using this tactic. Yuriy Ihnat, head of the Communications Department of the Air Force Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

Russia’s military has also begun fitting Shahed strike drones with new combined-type warheads, Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (DIU) told hromadske. These warheads have increased from 50 kilograms to 90 kilograms.

Intelligence suggests these upgraded drones allow Russia to inflict greater damage on Ukraine’s military and civilian infrastructure. This approach also helps Russia conserve its more expensive precision-guided missiles.

Ihnat explained that each drone has a payload capacity. Warheads can reach 90 kilograms by reducing fuel weight. Such drones can be used in rear areas or on the front line, depending on Russia’s objectives.

Where does Russia launch drones from?

Air Force reports frequently mention Russian launch sites, including Primorsko-Akhtarsk (Krasnodar Krai, southern Russia), Kursk (in a region bordering Ukraine’s Sumy Oblast), and Bryansk (bordering Chernihiv and Sumy oblasts).

Less common are Oryol (Oryol Oblast), Millerovo (Rostov Oblast), and Shatalovo (Smolensk Oblast). Occasionally, launches come from Hvardiyske, a settlement in Russian-occupied Crimea.

Ihnat said Russia chooses launch points based on targets. Drones from Kursk and Bryansk have a shorter flight to Kyiv, while those from Crimea and Primorsko-Akhtarsk target Odesa and Mykolaiv.

“They pick routes to approach from multiple directions simultaneously. They often choose sites with fewer prying eyes, like operational or abandoned airports,” said the Air Force spokesperson.

Military analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko noted that Russia is experimenting with new launch platforms, not just fixed sites but also mobile launches. Shaheds are mounted on pickup trucks or vans and launched “on the move.”

A truck pulls up, opens what’s essentially a container, and the drones fly out. Or from vehicles—those options exist now.Yuriy Ihnat, head of the Communications Department of the Air Force Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

Kovalenko said this allows Russia to expand launch zones, optimizing flight paths and drone routing.

“With one platform, you’re tied to a starting point. But with mobile launches, virtually all of Russia becomes a launchpad, letting you route more effectively,” the analyst said.

Can massive attacks be predicted?

Social media often buzzes with claims of an impending major attack. In reality, these predictions aren’t always accurate, though they encourage preparedness—like keeping a go-bag by the door or sleeping in clothes. The only verified source for potential attack information is Ukraine’s Air Force.

Ukrainian forces learn of Russia’s plans for massive strikes through various means, Ihnat said, including intelligence, Defense Forces operations, and data from partners.

Russia may still launch major attacks on “trigger dates”—holidays or significant events in Russia or Ukraine. Kovalenko cited examples like May 9, August 24, Putin’s birthday on October 7, New Year’s, and Christmas.

“But between these dates, it’s standard stockpiling. Peak days with heavy use of assets occur when the stockpile is ready. Then, for a few days, attacks are less intense as they replenish,” said Oleksandr Kovalenko.

While Russia once favored attacks on specific days, like Sunday nights into Monday, it has moved away from this pattern.

Should Ukraine expect more intensified attacks?

The trend of massive assaults will likely continue. Kovalenko said Russia prioritizes terrorizing Ukraine’s civilian population with rear-area strikes.

The Air Force also sees potential for escalation, given the recurring records in attack asset numbers.

Kovalenko said Russia uses massive attacks to “maximize terror in Ukraine’s rear,” fostering panic in cities and villages with fears that “defenses will soon collapse” and “Russians will march to Kyiv.”

One reason, the analyst said, is the start of a “summer offensive campaign,” likely accompanied by civilian-targeted terror in border areas and inland settlements.

Russia may also be reacting to strikes on its airfields. U.S. intelligence, cited by The New York Times, believes Russia will deliver a “significant response.” American officials suggest this could involve drone strikes on civilian targets, attacks on the power grid, or waves of medium-range ballistic missiles.

“I doubt we’ll ever again see launches of 70-90 Kh-101 missiles, or even 50. Russia is now heavily limited in conducting massive, uniform missile strikes—launching one type in large numbers, like in 2022 during the energy terror. That won’t happen again. They can’t manage that many simultaneous launches of uniform missiles with their current resources. They’ll combine types,” said Oleksandr Kovalenko.